The geopolitical classification of a country significantly influences our understanding of its actions and potential global influence. While seemingly straightforward, categorizing nations can be surprisingly complex. Mexico presents a compelling case, often perceived as straddling North America and Latin America. Determining Mexico’s true geopolitical sphere is crucial for grasping its current standing and future trajectory. Through a geopolitical lens, Mexico firmly belongs within North America. This perspective reveals Mexico’s considerable, often underestimated, importance and its untapped potential as a regional and global power poised for significant long-term growth.
It’s common to group Mexico with Central and South American nations under the umbrella term “Latin America.” This categorization typically stems from shared colonial history, a predominantly Spanish-speaking population, and cultural similarities like Catholicism. While these factors are undeniably part of Mexico’s identity, a deeper geopolitical analysis reveals that geography dictates its primary alignment.
The term “Latin America” is geopolitically misleading because it lumps together countries with vastly different geopolitical realities. A more accurate hemispheric division is between North America, stretching from Canada down to Panama, and South America, the massive landmass beginning in Colombia and extending to Tierra del Fuego.
A formidable geographic barrier separates these two regions: the narrowing isthmus from Chiapas in Mexico through Panama, compounded by dense tropical rainforests and the Andean Mountains in northern Colombia. In stark contrast, Mexico shares an extensive land border with the United States and is geographically isolated from South America – a region often struggling for global integration and effectively an island continent in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, purely geographically, Mexico is unequivocally situated in North America.
Geographical map highlighting North and South America
Furthermore, bicoastal access is a defining characteristic shared by most North American nations. Mexico boasts direct port access to both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Historically, Atlantic access was vital for engaging with European markets, a key factor in a nation’s trade prosperity. In recent times, the rise of Asian markets and Pacific trade has become increasingly significant. Bicoastal countries are strategically positioned to capitalize on major global trade routes and markets. While Mexico currently sends approximately 80% of its exports to the United States, indicating room for diversification towards European and Asian markets, the fundamental advantage of dual ocean access remains. This geographic trait is shared with both the United States and Canada, reinforcing their North American geopolitical commonality. Notably, none of South America’s major economies, or “Latin America’s” as some classify them, possess this bicoastal advantage.
These shared features among the largest North American countries carry profound geopolitical weight. As explored in George Friedman’s “The Next 100 Years,” geopolitical centers of gravity shift across long epochs, approximately 500-year cycles divided into distinct eras. The European Epoch, spanning from the European “discovery” of the Americas in 1492 to the end of the Cold War in 1991, witnessed power fluctuate among European nations like England, Spain, France, and Germany.
The fall of the Berlin Wall ushered in the American Era, shifting the world’s geopolitical center to North America. This region stands out for its bicoastal access and relative stability amidst Eurasian turbulence. The United States currently dominates North America and the global stage, defining the current American Era.
However, the power disparity between the United States and Mexico may narrow considerably in the future. The United States’ ascent to continental dominance was not always guaranteed. In 1800, Mexico controlled a larger territory and possessed a stronger military than the United States. At its late 18th-century zenith, Spanish-controlled Mexican territory stretched across North America, from the Mississippi River to the Pacific coast of present-day California, reaching as far north as the current US-Canada border.
Map depicting the US and Mexico borders around 1830
Two centuries later, the situation had completely reversed. Mexico’s territory began shrinking with the Louisiana Purchase in 1803. In 1836, Texas declared independence, followed by the Mexican-American War in 1846. Mexico’s defeat resulted in the loss of its territory north of the Rio Grande, establishing its modern borders.
History demonstrates the fluidity of power dynamics over epochs. Mexico’s North American location, combined with its substantial population and resource-rich territory, suggests the potential for it to emerge as a significant regional power in the long run. History teaches us that seemingly improbable shifts can become reality. In the 16th century, Spain, flush with gold from the Americas, seemed invincible, yet within 300 years, the British Empire, upon which the sun never set, rose to prominence. Similarly, in 1800, Mexico appeared poised to dominate North America. Two hundred years later, the tables had turned entirely.
The prospect of a much stronger Mexico, perhaps even a “Mexican Era” mirroring the current American Era, is still decades away. It’s likely to take the remainder of this century for Mexico to fully leverage its advantages and become a major regional, and potentially global, power. However, the forces driving this transformation are already underway. Recognizing Mexico as a North American nation is a crucial first step in understanding this evolution. Viewing Mexico through this geopolitical lens clarifies its potential for regional power. It also serves as a vital reminder that anticipating long-term geopolitical shifts requires challenging conventional wisdom.
