Donald Trump’s ascent to victory in the United States presidential election sent immediate shockwaves through global migrant communities, particularly those positioned in Mexico with aspirations of reaching the U.S. border. While Trump’s hardline stance on immigration was a central theme of his campaign, the reality on the ground for migrants in Mexico is proving to be more complex than a simple deterrent. Rather than turning back en masse, these individuals, driven by desperation and dwindling options, are recalibrating their strategies, often towards more perilous paths.
Trump’s pledge to drastically curtail immigration, while resonating with his voter base, may inadvertently fuel a surge in irregular migration. By further restricting already limited legal avenues into the U.S., experts predict a greater reliance on smugglers and clandestine routes. This shift plays directly into the hands of organized crime, which has increasingly diversified its illicit activities to include human trafficking, a market now rivalling the lucrative drug trade.
The demographics of those impacted are vast and varied, spanning continents and driven by diverse push factors. Venezuelans, though in slightly reduced numbers, continue to arrive at the U.S. southern border. Mexicans constitute a significant portion of Border Patrol arrests. Migrants from countries as far-flung as China and Senegal are also making their way through Mexico, utilizing circuitous routes and relying on complex networks to reach their destination. The United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) highlights a global trend of increasing displacement due to political instability, economic hardship, and violence. Their annual report underscores a stark warning: when safe, legal migration pathways are obstructed, individuals are compelled to seek “irregular channels that are extremely hazardous.”
During Trump’s previous administration, Mexican border cities became overcrowded with migrants awaiting asylum processes, creating a fertile ground for exploitation by cartels. Kidnappings, extortion, and forced recruitment became rampant. The introduction of the CBP One app by the Biden administration in early 2023 offered a semblance of order. This system allowed migrants to schedule appointments for asylum processing via their smartphones, reducing the chaotic scenes at border crossings and emptying overcrowded shelters as families attempted to navigate legal channels.
Image: Migrants in Mexico are depicted using their cellphones to access information, possibly related to the CBP One app or updates regarding US immigration policies.
However, Trump has vowed to dismantle CBP One, alongside further restricting refugee resettlement and implementing mass deportations. This shift in policy has instilled anxiety and uncertainty amongst migrants already en route to the U.S., though it hasn’t deterred them entirely.
Bárbara Rodríguez, a 33-year-old Venezuelan woman, exemplifies this resilience. Having already endured an arduous 8-mile trek through the Mexican heat with a group of 2,500 migrants, she spent election night glued to her cellphone, monitoring the U.S. election results. Political persecution in Venezuela forced her to flee, selling her home and leaving her children behind with her mother. Her initial plan to utilize CBP One is now clouded with uncertainty, as the program’s future hangs in the balance. “Plans changed. We have until Jan. 20,” she stated, referencing inauguration day, acknowledging the looming deadline and hinting at considering more dangerous alternatives like engaging smugglers.
Martha Bárcena, former Mexican Ambassador to the U.S., emphasizes that migrants bear the brunt of restrictive immigration policies, a pattern likely to repeat under a new Trump administration. She points to the alarming rise of human trafficking as a profit center for organized crime, potentially surpassing even drug trafficking in revenue generation.
Estefanía Ramos, a 19-year-old from Guatemala residing in a Ciudad Juarez shelter, voiced the collective apprehension. “We’re trying to figure out what’s going to happen to us,” she confessed, highlighting the disruption to their plans. Fleeing gang threats in Guatemala, she and her husband have patiently waited three months for a CBP One appointment, now with their infant daughter in tow. Despite the uncertainty, she expressed a preference for legal pathways, stating, “If we can keep waiting for an appointment we will,” underscoring the inherent dangers of unauthorized crossings, especially with a baby.
Image: A group of migrants is shown waiting, possibly at a border crossing or a processing center, reflecting the uncertainty and waiting periods associated with seeking asylum.
Gretchen Kuhner, director of IMUMI, a legal aid organization in Mexico, witnessed firsthand the precarious conditions faced by migrants awaiting CBP One appointments in southern Mexico. Families with young children were living on the streets, struggling to access basic necessities while relying on makeshift charging stations to maintain contact and monitor their appointment status. She emphasized that, “People who need protection are really trying to do it the right way,” highlighting the genuine desire of many asylum seekers to follow legal procedures.
Mark Hetfield, CEO of HIAS, a refugee support organization, warns that further restrictions will leave vulnerable populations with virtually no viable options. He points out the inadequacy of asylum systems in many countries within the hemisphere, leaving migrants with limited safe havens.
The threat of mass deportations also looms large. While Trump’s previous deportation threats didn’t fully materialize, the anxiety is palpable. Deportations to countries like Cuba and Venezuela present logistical and diplomatic challenges, though surprisingly, Venezuelan President Maduro offered a conciliatory message to Trump. Advocates in Haiti are already demanding a halt to deportations due to the country’s ongoing crisis.
Mexico stands to be profoundly affected by any surge in deportations. With an estimated 11 million Mexicans residing in the U.S., and approximately half lacking legal status, mass deportations would strain the Mexican economy and social fabric. Remittances from the U.S., exceeding $63 billion annually, are a crucial lifeline for millions of Mexican families.
Rafael Velásquez García of the International Rescue Committee in Mexico highlights the unpreparedness of Mexican aid groups to handle a large influx of deportees, noting that civil society already shoulders the majority of humanitarian aid for migrants. Carlos Pérez Ricart, a professor at CIDE, a Mexican research center, concludes that Mexico must brace itself to become a “holding country” for migrants, regardless of its own policy preferences. Trump’s policies are poised to deport vast numbers and simultaneously impede migrant flows, placing immense pressure on Mexico.
Reporting contributed by Pesce from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, and Juan Zamorano from Panama City.
