On June 2nd, Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate from the ruling MORENA party (Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional), won the presidential election with almost 60% of the vote. This landmark victory made her the first woman president in Mexico’s history. Simultaneously with the presidential race, Mexican voters participated in legislative, state, and municipal elections. However, the electoral process was marred by significant violence, including assassinations and attacks targeting candidates and political figures. According to ACLED data, over 330 incidents of violence against political figures occurred during the campaign period, from the start of the federal campaign on March 1st to election day on June 2nd. Tragically, at least 95 of these incidents resulted in one or more deaths. The level of violence during this election campaign reached a historic high, surpassing the violence seen in the 2018 and 2021 general and federal elections, which recorded 254 and 257 events, respectively.
The heightened levels of violence during the 2024 campaign period had a widespread impact, even on candidates not directly targeted. At least 553 candidates requested state protection due to threats,16 while others chose to withdraw from the race altogether due to intimidation.17 Despite the severity of the violence, substantive proposals to address this issue were notably absent from the platforms of leading presidential candidates.
This report delves into the primary trends observed during the 2024 Mexican Election cycle:18
- Violent attacks are predominantly localized: Over 80% of the 216 incidents targeting candidates, their supporters, or families involved candidates vying for local positions.
- Perpetrators exert pressure on local authorities: Current and former officials not seeking reelection were targeted in over 40% of the violent events.
- Violence against political figures extends beyond the campaign period: While escalating during the campaign, violence begins to rise early in the electoral cycle and persists well after election day.
- Organized crime competition fuels much of the violence: Six of the ten states with the highest rates of violence against political figures are also among the top ten most affected by organized crime violence.
- Local power struggles are a significant driver of violence: Less violent forms of unrest, such as riots and property destruction, constitute around 30% of events, indicating that local power struggles and community grievances also contribute to violence against political figures.
Localized Nature of Violent Attacks in Mexican Election
Approximately 40% of violent events targeting political figures during the 2024 mexican election cycle were directed at candidates running for office. Although local, state, and federal elections were held on the same day, over 80% of the 216 violent incidents against candidates, their families, or supporters targeted political figures competing for local positions, including mayoralties and municipal councils. The remaining 20% included attacks against individuals running for federal positions and former candidates.
Veracruz provides a compelling example of how local elections can drive violence. Unlike most federal entities holding municipal elections in 2024, Veracruz will hold these elections in 2025. During the last municipal elections in 2021, Veracruz experienced the highest level of violence against political figures, with 57 events recorded in the six months leading up to the vote and the two weeks following. However, this time, ACLED recorded about a quarter of the 2021 figure in Veracruz—17 events—placing it tenth in the ranking. This significant shift in violence levels underscores how the absence of municipal elections can correlate with lower levels of violence.
In other states, the presence of local elections also contributed to high levels of violence against officials, functionaries, and candidates due to intense power competition. A large number of candidates running in local elections found themselves targeted by organized crime groups and political rivals. Candidates were particularly vulnerable in the states of Hidalgo, Mexico, Morelos, and Puebla, where they constituted the majority of victims. However, attacks against candidates were most lethal in Chiapas and Guerrero, where 21 and 20 individuals, respectively, died in violent incidents involving candidates.
While on a smaller scale, elections for state officials, such as governors and local deputies, also fueled violence. Several candidates for local congresses were targeted in this electoral cycle, particularly in states holding gubernatorial elections. In Chiapas and Morelos, armed men attacked two state senate candidates from the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition, while in Veracruz, armed men fatally shot a MORENA candidate for local deputy. These instances demonstrate that while municipal elections are a significant trigger for political violence, important state-level contests can also contribute to the violence witnessed in the 2024 mexican election.
Of all incidents recorded since the electoral process began, at least 69 were committed against women, many of whom were candidates for public office, representing 13% of the violence. However, this should not be interpreted as women being less likely to be targeted. Despite the 2024 elections being notable for women’s candidacies for president, the subsequent victory of Claudia Sheinbaum, and the National Electoral Institute’s guidelines for parties to ensure gender parity in candidacies, there remains insufficient representation of women in local official bodies. In 2023, only 28% of local positions were held by women.19 In fact, female candidates received more threats than men during the 2024 mexican election process,20 often forcing them to withdraw from the race, as was the case for 217 female candidates in Zacatecas alone.21
Pressure on Local Authorities and Political Figures Beyond Candidates
Candidates were not the only political figures exposed to violence in the recent mexican election cycle. Over 40% of the 540 incidents of violence targeted current and former officials not running for election, such as mayors and public functionaries. The consistent violence against these officials indicates an intention to exert pressure on political processes beyond election periods.
ACLED data reveals that public officials across different sectors are affected. Officials dealing with judicial and security matters, and public administration treasurers, were the most frequently targeted non-elected officials. This trend is largely attributed to organized crime groups seeking to control local resources and key administrative areas, such as security and the judiciary, which can impact their operations. Indeed, public officials not seeking election are targeted nationwide, but they represent a higher proportion of victims in states severely affected by organized crime-related violence, such as Guanajuato, Guerrero, and Michoacán.
Family members of politicians were also victims in around 14% of attacks against political figures, either as direct targets or related casualties. Often, violence against family members reflects an attempt to exert pressure on a political figure. For example, in October 2023, alleged members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) attempted to kill the brother of the mayor of Tacámbaro—himself a former mayor—after the group issued threats against him and his treasurer. In at least 28% of these cases, the targeted family members were also public officials or politicians, highlighting that a few families concentrate significant political power but are not spared from attacks, especially in states like Guerrero, Michoacán, and Puebla.
A notable example is the influential Salgado family in Guerrero state. Several family members hold elected positions and have also been targeted by threats and attacks in recent years. In August 2023, Zulma Carvajal Salgado—cousin of the governor of Guerrero, Evelyn Salgado Pineda, who succeeded her father, Félix Salgado Macedonio—was attacked, resulting in the death of her husband. The attack occurred shortly after she announced her intention to run in the municipal elections in Iguala.
Violence Extends Beyond the Mexican Election Campaign Period
Similar to previous electoral processes, pre-election unrest, particularly violence against political figures, began to increase even before campaigns officially started. Violence against political figures saw an initial spike in October 2023, shortly after the start of a period called citizen support, which began on September 9, 2023, in some states. During this period, aspiring candidates for president, senate, and federal councils gather signatures to run as independent candidates. After a relatively consistent level between November 2023 and January 2024, violent events against political figures substantially increased in February. This increase coincided with the end of the pre-campaign period in most states, when aspiring candidates from political parties conduct public activities to gather support for their nominations.
Combined chart – Violence targeting political figures 11 June 2023 to 16 June 2024 – Spanish
Violence Targeting Political Figures in Mexico: Trends from June 2023 to June 2024, highlighting increased incidents during the 2024 Mexican election cycle.
Violence against political figures occurring early in the electoral cycle is often linked to perpetrators marking territory. A violent incident signals that the area is under their influence and aims to deter candidates they deem threatening or unaligned.22 The majority of victims in at least 34 events recorded in October 2023 were current or former local representatives and their families, but some targeted elected positions. For example, on October 4, the mayor of the Cuauhtémoc district of Mexico City, who sought to become a candidate for head of government of Mexico City for the Party of the Democratic Revolution, was attacked by a group of individuals while visiting the capital’s food supply center.
However, violence against political figures escalates once candidacies are defined, as targets become more identifiable for those seeking to influence contests through violent means. From the start of the campaign for federal and state elections in March, and local elections in April, violence against political figures increased exponentially, reaching a peak of 132 events in May, resulting in 55 fatalities and marking a record in both figures since ACLED began covering the country in 2018. Election day itself experienced the highest number of events against political figures, with 80 events recorded.
Nevertheless, risks to political figures are unlikely to cease after the mexican election. In Guanajuato, for example, armed men attacked the business of the elected mayor of Tarimoro days after he won the election.23 Moreover, previous electoral cycles suggest that violence will not only remain high at least until the inauguration ceremonies but will continue throughout the new administrations. ACLED recorded 210 and 179 events in the six months following the 2018 and 2021 elections, respectively, as well as consistent levels of violence over the years, totaling nearly 3,000 events of violence against political figures since ACLED began its coverage.
Organized Crime Competition Driving Election-Related Violence
ACLED records high levels of violence against political figures in the states of Guanajuato and Michoacán, two of the federal entities most affected by organized crime violence in the year leading up to the 2024 vote. This confirms that in some states, competition between criminal groups drives violence against political figures. Six of the ten states with the highest levels of incidents against political figures during the mexican election cycle are also among the ten most affected by organized crime-related violence in the same period. This is particularly true for Guerrero, which ranks second for the number of violent incidents against political figures, but first for the number of fatalities in these attacks, and fifth for violence likely related to organized crime during the electoral cycle. In Chiapas, the state with the highest levels of violence against political figures during this electoral process, the increase in violence linked to the rivalry between the CJNG and the Sinaloa cartel contributed to an increase of over 90% in violence against political figures compared to the 2021 electoral cycle. The high levels of violence led to the cancellation of voting in Chicomuselo and Pantelhó.24
Table – Top 5 Mexican states with highest estimated levels of violence targeting political figures – 7 Sept 2023 – 15 June 2024 – Spanish
Top 5 Mexican States with Highest Estimated Levels of Violence Targeting Political Figures during the 2024 Election Cycle.
However, there are exceptions, particularly when one organized crime group exerts hegemony. Indeed, the states of Jalisco and Sinaloa are among the ten most affected by organized crime violence but not among those with the most events of violence against political figures. They are also, respectively, the strongholds of the CJNG and the Sinaloa cartel, suggesting their influence in local politics may be such that they do not need to resort to violence against political figures to consolidate their influence.[25](javascript:void(0); 26 Much of the violence recorded in those states, in fact, stems from these groups’ tactics to exert territorial control and may occasionally relate to localized disputes with smaller groups, such as violence involving the Nueva Plaza cartel in the Tlajomulco area.
Conversely, in some cases, the presence of a strong political establishment dominated by a few families also contributes to low levels of violence against political figures. Nuevo León is an example. Despite recording some of the highest levels of organized crime violence, violent incidents against political figures have remained limited in the past year. Nuevo León is the second wealthiest state in the country, with an economy led by export-oriented manufacturing. A small number of families concentrate most of the wealth and political power. Major gubernatorial candidates in the 2021 elections, some of whom are part of these families, have been accused of links to criminal organizations like Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel (CDG).27 Furthermore, since the collapse of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) hegemony in the 1990s, the state has been governed by the Citizens’ Movement or independent candidates, but MORENA has failed to make significant advances in the state’s political sphere.28 In the recent mexican election, in fact, MORENA only won two of the state’s 51 municipalities.29
Local Power Competition as a Key Driver of Violence in Mexican Election
Beyond direct attacks against political figures, a significant portion—30%—of incidents manifested as riots and property destruction. These events were linked to the expression of public discontent towards local representatives or rivalries between competing political actors. They were particularly prominent in Chiapas, Puebla, and Hidalgo. These three states are more susceptible to local power struggles and electoral disputes due to pre-existing inter-community conflicts and the concentration of power in the hands of local power brokers or caciques.
Before election campaigns began, this form of violence primarily erupted during protests where demonstrators confronted representatives for failing to meet their demands. However, property destruction and collective violence can also be used by political contenders to intimidate adversaries. Indeed, these events notably increased during the election campaign in April and May and included attacks against the properties of candidates and officials, and collective actions against supporters of a rival faction. For example, on May 15, in Tlanchinol, Hidalgo, armed men shot at a vehicle parked in front of the house of a candidate seeking to join the municipal council for the MORENA-PANAL alliance, who had already reported receiving threats before the mexican election.
Lastly, disturbances surrounding election day are often related to the rejection of results or allegations of irregularities or vote-buying during the process by a candidate. For example, on June 1, in Puebla, a group of 200 people, including supporters of the PRI and the National Action Party (PAN), physically assaulted MORENA members in Venustiano Carranza over alleged vote-buying. Due to the incident, the State Electoral Institute decided to annul the election results due to irregularities.30 Similarly, in Chenalhó, Chiapas, supporters of the Green Party of Mexico clashed during an assembly to elect their representatives amid allegations that the unrest was orchestrated by the mayor to prevent his candidate from losing.
