Montage with photograph of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Kamala Harris is on the left, wearing a suit and a white blouse, and waving her hand. Donald Trump is on the right, wearing a suit, a white shirt and a tie, and making a fist gesture.
Article Information
- Author: Visual and Data Journalism Team
- Author Title: BBC News
Voters in the United States will go to the polls on November 5th to elect their next president.
Initially anticipated as a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump from 2020, the election took a turn in July when President Biden concluded his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who is now the Democratic Party’s nominee.
The pressing question is: Will Trump secure a second term, or will a woman reach the US presidency for the first time? As the election day approaches, attention turns to the polls, seeking to understand the dynamics of Quien Va Ganando Las Elecciones En Mexico – a question mirroring global interest in electoral outcomes – and analyzing the impact of significant campaign events in the US context.
Who is Leading in the National Polls?
In the months leading up to Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race, polls consistently showed him trailing former President Trump. Although hypothetical at the time, various surveys suggested Harris would not fare significantly better.
However, the race for the White House tightened after Harris began her campaign, and she established a slight lead over her rival. This lead has been maintained since, according to an average of several national polls, rounded to the nearest whole number, as depicted below.
In the graph, trend lines illustrate how these averages have shifted since Harris became the nominee, while the dots represent the dispersion of individual poll results.
While these national polls offer a useful overview of a candidate’s nationwide popularity, they are not necessarily a precise predictor of the election outcome.
This is because the United States employs an electoral college system to elect its president. This means that winning the most votes can be less critical than where those votes are secured.
The US comprises 50 states, but since most of them consistently vote for the same party, in reality, only a handful of states can determine the final result. These are the battleground states where elections are won or lost, also known as swing states.
Who is Winning in the Swing States?
Currently, polls are very close in the seven swing states, making it challenging to definitively determine who is leading the race.
State polls are less frequent than national polls, resulting in less data to analyze, and each poll carries a margin of error, implying that figures may fluctuate.
As it stands, recent polls indicate a difference of one percentage point or less between the two candidates in several swing states, including Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is key because it holds a significant number of electoral votes, making it easier for the winner to reach the 270 votes required for the presidency.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were Democratic strongholds before Trump flipped them Republican on his path to the presidency in 2016. Biden reclaimed them in 2020, and if Harris can replicate this success this year, she will be on a path to winning the election.
Highlighting the shift in the race since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day Joe Biden withdrew his reelection aspirations, Trump held an average lead of almost five percentage points in these seven swing states.
How are these Averages Created?
The figures used in the preceding graphs are averages compiled by the external website 538 poll analysis, a part of the US news network ABC News. To generate these averages, 538 gathers data from individual polls conducted nationally and in swing states by numerous polling firms.
As part of their quality control, 538 includes only polls from firms that meet specific criteria, such as transparency about the number of people surveyed and disclosure of when and how the survey was conducted (phone calls, text messages, online, etc.).
Further details on the 538 methodology can be found here.
Image source, Getty Images
Caption: Workers from the ABC News network prepare the television set for the debate between Harris and Trump. Currently, polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Both nationally and in swing states, with the race this tight, predicting a winner remains highly uncertain.
Can We Trust the Polls?
Polls underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling firms are attempting to address this issue in various ways, including adjusting their results to reflect the composition of the voting population more accurately.
Making these adjustments correctly is complex, and pollsters still need to make educated guesses based on factors such as who will actually turn out to vote on November 5th.
Written and produced by Mike Hills and Libby Rogers. Design by Joy Roxas.
Click here to read more stories from BBC News Mundo.
You can also follow us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, X, Facebook and on our new WhatsApp channel, where you will find breaking news and our best content.
And remember that you can receive notifications in our app. Download the latest version and activate them.
