New Mexico is facing a demographic turning point. While the state’s population is projected to experience a slight increase in the coming years, this growth is expected to be minimal and short-lived. According to the latest population projections from the University of New Mexico Geospatial & Population Studies (UNM-GPS), the state demographer’s office, New Mexico’s population trends indicate a near-future of stagnation followed by a gradual decline. This demographic shift is primarily attributed to an aging population, declining birth rates, and shifting migration patterns, highlighting significant implications for the state’s future.
New Mexico’s current population, estimated at 2.11 million, is projected to grow modestly, reaching a peak of approximately 2.16 million around 2035. This represents a mere 2.5% increase, or about 50,000 people, over the current population. However, this growth is not sustainable. Projections indicate that after 2035, New Mexico will enter a period of slow and steady population decline, continuing towards 2050 and beyond. This flatlining trend is a significant departure from historical growth patterns and signals a need for proactive planning and adaptation across various sectors.
New Mexico Population Change 1910-2050
According to Robert Rhatigan, New Mexico State Demographer and UNM-GPS Director, the projected growth is so marginal that even minor fluctuations in birth rates, death rates, or migration trends could easily tip the balance towards either increased growth or accelerated decline. This delicate balance underscores the uncertainty and the need for continuous monitoring of these demographic factors.
An Aging New Mexico Population
One of the most significant demographic shifts in New Mexico is the rapid aging of its population. The number of New Mexicans aged 65 and older is expected to surge by over 200,000 in the next two decades, marking an increase of more than 28%. By 2040, it is estimated that nearly 23% of the state’s population will be seniors, aged 65 and above. This is a considerable increase from 2020, when seniors constituted 18% of the population, and a dramatic rise from 2010, when they accounted for just 13%.
The aging trend is further emphasized by the anticipated doubling of the population aged 85 and older. This age group is projected to grow from approximately 40,000 in 2020 to over 85,000 by 2040. This rapid increase in the elderly population presents both opportunities and challenges for New Mexico, particularly in healthcare, social services, and economic structures.
Dr. Jacqueline Miller, UNM-GPS Senior Research Scientist, highlights the dramatic shift in New Mexico’s age structure. The state is transitioning towards a demographic profile characterized by a larger proportion of seniors and a shrinking younger population, including children and young adults. This changing age structure has profound implications for the state’s workforce, education system, and long-term economic vitality.
Declining Births and Increasing Deaths
The aging of New Mexico’s population is driven by two primary factors: increased longevity and declining birth rates. As the baby boomer generation enters retirement age and enjoys longer lifespans, the proportion of elderly residents naturally increases. Simultaneously, New Mexicans are having fewer children, contributing to a shrinking younger population base.
Projections indicate that the population aged 0-24 in New Mexico will decrease to around 550,000 by 2040, a 20% decline over two decades. This significant reduction in the younger demographic segment further exacerbates the aging trend and poses challenges for future population replacement and workforce development.
Dr. Miller notes that birth rates in New Mexico have been on a steady decline since 2008, with women having fewer children each year. This trend is expected to continue, not only because of reduced fertility rates but also due to a decreasing number of women in childbearing age groups. This combination of factors points towards a sustained period of lower birth rates in the state.
A critical demographic shift occurred in 2020 when the number of deaths in New Mexico began to exceed the number of births. This transition, accelerated by the impact of COVID-19 related deaths in 2020 and 2021, arrived sooner than initially anticipated. While mortality rates have since normalized, the increasing number of older residents ensures that annual deaths will continue to rise, outpacing births and leading to a natural population decrease.
Natural Population Change in New Mexico with Declining Births and Increasing Deaths
The Crucial Role of International Migration
Historically, migration has been a driver of population growth in New Mexico. However, since 2012, domestic migration patterns have reversed, with more US residents moving out of New Mexico than into it each year. Since 2020, the state has experienced a net loss of approximately 6,000 people due to domestic out-migration, according to US Census figures.
The only factor currently offsetting these population losses from domestic migration and natural decrease is international migration. Since 2020, international migration has added about 12,000 people to New Mexico’s population. While this number is modest, it has been crucial in preventing a more significant population decline.
UNM-GPS demographers emphasize that international migration will be the key determinant in whether New Mexico experiences population growth or decline in the coming years. However, they also caution that international migration is heavily influenced by federal immigration policies, which are subject to political changes and uncertainties. The future of New Mexico’s population trajectory is therefore closely linked to these broader policy dynamics.
Urban Growth Contrasted with Rural Decline
Population changes in New Mexico are not uniform across the state. Growth is projected to concentrate in metropolitan counties such as Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia, Dona Ana, and Santa Fe. These urban centers are expected to continue attracting residents and experiencing population increases. San Juan County stands out as the only metropolitan county projected to experience population decline, reflecting unique local economic and demographic factors.
In contrast, rural counties across New Mexico are anticipated to face population decline. The most significant losses are expected in smaller rural counties with populations under 5,000, such as Mora, De Baca, and Hidalgo counties. These counties could see dramatic population decreases of 40% or more in the coming decades, posing significant challenges for their economies, infrastructure, and community sustainability. Eddy and Lea Counties in the Permian Basin are exceptions, projected to continue growing at relatively high rates due to the energy sector. However, population trends in this region are inherently volatile, subject to the cyclical nature of the fossil fuel industry.
Projected County Population Change in New Mexico 2020-2040
New Mexico’s Demographic Trends in a Global Context
The demographic trends observed in New Mexico are not isolated phenomena. An aging and increasingly urbanized population is a pattern seen across many states in the US and globally. Approximately 20 US states currently experience more deaths than births annually, and more are expected to reach this point soon. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and many in Western Europe are also grappling with aging and declining populations.
In a world where population growth is often linked to economic prosperity, these demographic shifts present significant challenges. For New Mexico and similar regions, proactive planning and innovation are essential to address the impacts of these demographic changes on critical sectors such as housing, healthcare, education, and tax revenues. Understanding and adapting to these population trends will be crucial for ensuring a sustainable and prosperous future for New Mexico.
While population projections are based on current trends in births, deaths, and migration, future shifts in any of these factors could alter the projected trajectory. Fertility and mortality rates are relatively predictable, but migration remains the most volatile component, capable of significantly influencing population projections in either direction. These projections from UNM-GPS, grounded in detailed 2020 Census data, provide essential insights for policymakers, businesses, and communities across New Mexico as they navigate the state’s evolving demographic landscape.
