New Mexico’s population demographics are undergoing significant shifts, presenting both opportunities and challenges for the state’s future. Recent population projections from the University of New Mexico Geospatial & Population Studies (UNM-GPS), acting as the State Demographers Office, indicate a period of near-static overall population growth coupled with a rapidly aging demographic. This analysis delves into the key trends shaping the New Mexico Population, drawing from the latest data and expert insights.
New Mexico’s current population stands at approximately 2.11 million. Projections suggest a slow growth phase, peaking around 2035 at 2.16 million. This modest increase of about 50,000 individuals, or 2.5% of the current population, will then be followed by a gradual and consistent decline projected through 2050 and beyond. This flatlining trend underscores a significant demographic shift for the state.
New Mexico Population Change 1910-2050
Figure 1: Historical and projected population change in New Mexico from 1910 to 2050, illustrating the plateauing growth.
According to Robert Rhatigan, Director of UNM-GPS and the New Mexico State Demographer, the projected growth is so marginal that even slight variations in birth rates, death rates, or migration patterns could easily sway the state towards either increased growth or accelerated decline. This delicate balance highlights the precarious nature of New Mexico’s population trajectory.
The Graying of the New Mexico Population
A defining characteristic of the evolving new mexico population is its rapid aging. The number of residents aged 65 and older is anticipated to surge by over 200,000 within the next two decades, marking an increase exceeding 28%. By 2040, it is estimated that nearly 23% of New Mexicans will be senior citizens, aged 65 and above. This is a considerable rise from the 2020 Census figure of 18%, and a stark contrast to the 13% recorded in 2010.
Concurrently, the population segment aged 85 and older is set to more than double in the same 20-year timeframe, escalating from approximately 40,000 in 2020 to over 85,000 by 2040. This dramatic shift in age structure presents significant implications for healthcare, social services, and economic planning within the state.
Dr. Jacqueline Miller, Senior Research Scientist at UNM-GPS, emphasizes this demographic transformation, noting that New Mexico is experiencing a swift change in its age composition. The state will increasingly be characterized by a larger proportion of elderly individuals alongside a shrinking population of children and young adults.
Figure 2: New Mexico Population Pyramids for 2020 and 2040, visually demonstrating the shift towards an older population structure.
Birth Rate Decline and Rising Mortality in New Mexico
The aging trend in the new mexico population is primarily driven by two interconnected factors: an increasing aging baby boomer generation living longer and a consistent decline in birth rates. New Mexicans are having fewer children, a trend observed over the past decade.
Projections indicate that the population aged 0-24 in New Mexico is expected to decrease to around 550,000 by 2040, a 20% reduction over two decades. This shrinking younger demographic base further exacerbates the aging trend.
Dr. Miller points out that births in New Mexico have been on a steady decline since 2008, with women having fewer children on average. This trend is projected to continue due to both lower fertility rates and a decreasing number of women in childbearing age groups.
Notably, since 2020, deaths in New Mexico have begun to outnumber births. This crossover occurred earlier than anticipated, partly influenced by the increased mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. While mortality rates have since normalized, the growing elderly population ensures that the annual number of deaths will continue to climb and exceed births, contributing to the state’s demographic challenges.
Natural Population Change: Births vs Deaths in New Mexico
Figure 3: Graph illustrating the natural population change in New Mexico, showing declining births and increasing deaths.
The Role of Migration in New Mexico’s Population Stability
Historically, migration fueled New Mexico’s population growth during its first century of statehood. However, since 2012, domestic migration has become negative, indicating a net outflow of US residents from New Mexico to other states. Since 2020, New Mexico has experienced a net loss of approximately 6,000 people due to domestic out-migration, according to US Census Bureau data.
Counteracting this domestic loss is international migration, which has added around 12,000 individuals to the new mexico population since 2020. While this number is relatively modest, it has been sufficient to offset the combined effects of negative domestic migration and natural population decline (births minus deaths), maintaining a near-stable overall population.
UNM-GPS demographers emphasize the critical role of international migration in sustaining New Mexico’s population. They project this trend to continue, highlighting international migration as a key factor in preventing population decline. However, they also caution that international migration trends are heavily dependent on federal immigration policies, a subject to frequent and potentially impactful changes.
Urban Growth Contrasted with Rural Decline Across New Mexico
Population changes within New Mexico are not uniform across the state. Growth is projected to concentrate in metropolitan counties, including Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia, Dona Ana, and Santa Fe. Among metropolitan counties, San Juan County is the only exception, expected to experience population decline. Eddy and Lea Counties, located in the Permian Basin, are projected to maintain relatively high growth rates, although their population trends are susceptible to the volatile boom-and-bust cycles characteristic of the fossil fuel industry.
In stark contrast, rural counties throughout New Mexico are anticipated to experience population decline. The most significant losses are expected in smaller counties with populations under 5,000, such as Mora, De Baca, and Hidalgo counties, some of which could face population reductions of 40% or more in the coming decades. This urban-rural divergence in population trends presents unique challenges for resource allocation and economic development strategies across the state.
Projected County Population Change in New Mexico 2020-2040
Figure 4: Map showing the projected percentage change in county populations across New Mexico from 2020 to 2040, highlighting urban growth and rural decline.
New Mexico’s Demographics in a Global Context
The demographic shifts observed in the new mexico population, characterized by aging and urbanization, are not unique to the state. Approximately 20 US states currently experience more deaths than births annually, and this trend is expected to expand to other states in the near future. Furthermore, many developed nations, including Japan, South Korea, and countries in Western Europe, are grappling with similar challenges of aging and declining populations.
Growing populations are often perceived as essential for economic expansion. Therefore, proactive planning and innovative solutions are crucial to effectively address the wide-ranging impacts of these evolving demographics on critical sectors such as housing, healthcare, education, and tax revenue bases in New Mexico.
Potential to Alter Population Trajectory
Population projections are inherently based on current trends in births, deaths, and migration. While fertility and mortality rates tend to be relatively predictable, migration patterns represent a more volatile factor that could significantly influence future population trajectories in either direction. Shifts in any of these components could alter the projected course of the new mexico population.
These latest population projections from UNM-GPS are grounded in detailed age data from the 2020 Census, published by the Census Bureau in 2023. Notably, the Census Bureau does not produce state-level population projections, making the impartial projections from UNM-GPS a vital resource for numerous New Mexico state agencies, businesses, and non-profit organizations for informed planning and decision-making.
