Just weeks into her presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum, the new leader of Mexico, is confronting a stark reality of escalating violence, a situation many attribute to the policies of her predecessor. Taking office on October 1st, Sheinbaum inherited a security landscape deeply troubled by the entrenched power of drug cartels and the militarization of law enforcement under the previous administration.
While President Sheinbaum would likely prefer to focus on her proposed sweeping judicial reforms, including the controversial plan to have judges elected, her initial days have been dominated by a series of violent incidents. These events, occurring within her first three weeks, underscore the immense security challenges confronting her administration. The violence includes the deeply concerning army killing of six migrants on her inauguration day and the tragic deaths of three bystanders in Nuevo Laredo just ten days later, victims of military and National Guard operations targeting suspected cartel members.
President Claudia Sheinbaum is seen holding hands with former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador after her inauguration in Mexico City, highlighting the transition of power and the continuity of some policies.
The third week of Sheinbaum’s term brought further grim developments. A Catholic priest known for his activism and outspoken criticism of criminal gangs was murdered, a chilling example of the dangers faced by those who challenge cartel power. Compounding this tragedy was a highly disproportionate clash in Sinaloa state, where soldiers reportedly killed 19 alleged cartel members without sustaining any casualties themselves. This incident immediately evoked painful memories of past human rights violations involving the military, notably the 2014 case where soldiers killed a group of cartel suspects after they had already surrendered.
Santiago Aguirre, head of the Miguel Agustín Pro Human Rights Center, expressed deep concern about the current trajectory. “It is all very disappointing, and it looks dark for the future,” Aguirre stated, emphasizing the sense of societal breakdown. He criticized the government’s focus on judicial reform, arguing that it diverts crucial resources and attention from addressing the urgent issue of escalating violence. “Everything is breaking down, and instead of taking care of these priority issues, all the government’s political capital is being wasted on a judicial reform that will cause more problems than solutions.”
While Sheinbaum has stated that investigations are underway into all these incidents, her public statements have predominantly focused on promoting the judicial reform, spending significantly less time addressing the pressing security crisis. She has defended the judicial reform, arguing that electing judges will be a key step in combating corruption within the system.
Critics, however, argue that the fundamental issue lies not primarily with corrupt judges freeing criminals. Instead, they point to the systemic weakness of civilian law enforcement and prosecution capabilities. Decades of underfunding and inadequate training have left civilian police and prosecutors ill-equipped to effectively tackle crime, resulting in an astonishingly high impunity rate where over 90% of crimes in Mexico never even reach the courtroom.
The roots of the current security strategy can be traced back to Sheinbaum’s predecessor and political mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. López Obrador, who concluded his term on September 30th, made a decisive shift towards utilizing the armed forces as the central pillar of his security policy. This approach effectively sidelined efforts to strengthen and reform civilian police forces and the judiciary, long considered crucial for establishing lasting rule of law and combating corruption at its source.
President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum is pictured with outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador at an anniversary event in Mexico City, illustrating the political lineage and policy continuities expected by some observers.
Sheinbaum has explicitly pledged to continue all of López Obrador’s key policies, including his controversial “hugs, not bullets” strategy. This approach prioritizes addressing the root causes of crime through social programs like scholarships and job training, rather than direct confrontation with drug cartels. The aim is to reduce the pool of potential recruits for criminal organizations by offering alternative pathways and opportunities.
Despite López Obrador’s approach, Mexico’s historically high homicide rates remained largely unchanged during his presidency. However, the former president possessed a remarkable ability to control public narrative, often portraying himself as a victim of media sensationalism and dismissing reports of violence as politically motivated smears.
In stark contrast, the sheer volume and gravity of violent incidents since Sheinbaum assumed office have presented a challenge she has yet to effectively deflect. On Thursday, the brazenness of cartel operations was further underscored when a drug cartel detonated two near-simultaneous car bombs in Guanajuato state. This act of terror, injuring three police officers and causing widespread destruction, served as a stark demonstration of the cartels’ evolving tactics and reach.
Juan Ibarrola, a military analyst with close ties to the armed forces, acknowledged the significant pressure these events are placing on the new administration. “It is putting her and the new administration to the test,” Ibarrola stated, highlighting the immediate and intense security challenges Sheinbaum faces.
There is no question about the formidable power and territorial ambitions of Mexico’s drug cartels. Successive presidential administrations, four in total, have struggled to devise an effective strategy to counter this deeply entrenched threat.
Ibarrola argues that confronting this challenge necessitates the use of force by the Mexican government. “It is unfortunate, but the use of violence by the Mexican government is necessary” to meet the challenge, he asserted, reflecting a perspective that favors a more assertive approach.
National Guard personnel are shown cordoning off a street in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, following a violent incident, illustrating the ongoing security operations and the visible presence of security forces in cartel-affected regions.
Adding to the sense of crisis, Mexico’s top civilian security official, Omar García Harfuch, described a massive, hours-long cartel attack in Guerrero state on Friday. He detailed how a convoy of cartel gunmen, utilizing 16 vehicles, some armored, launched a sophisticated assault.
Garcia Harfuch reported that the cartel forces employed heavy weaponry, including fully automatic machine guns, explosive devices, and .50-caliber sniper rifles, in a prolonged gun battle against soldiers and police. The resulting casualties again highlighted the disparity in these confrontations: 17 suspected cartel members and two police officers were killed, while the military’s losses were minimal.
However, amidst mounting public scrutiny and negative media coverage, the army, which now commands the National Guard, the country’s primary law enforcement agency, appears to be attempting to counter the narrative of excessive force and impunity. The Defense Department swiftly released images of bullet-ridden army vehicles and emphasized that three soldiers sustained injuries in the Guerrero clash, seeking to portray a more balanced account of the engagement.
The border city of Nuevo Laredo, directly across from Laredo, Texas, serves as a stark example of the complexities and potential pitfalls of a military-led security strategy when pitted against heavily armed and deeply entrenched drug cartels. It was in Nuevo Laredo where the recent killings of three civilians by troops occurred, incidents that included the deaths of a nurse and an eight-year-old girl in separate events on October 11th and 12th.
Raymundo Ramos, head of the Human Rights Commission of Nuevo Laredo, has long advocated for accountability in cases of civilian deaths at the hands of the military in the region. Drawing parallels to the recent incidents in Sinaloa and other parts of Mexico, Ramos expressed concern that the military’s operational doctrine of “shoot first, ask questions later,” seemingly prevalent in Nuevo Laredo, may be spreading nationwide.
“It is the same way they operate in Nuevo Laredo,” Ramos warned, suggesting a systemic issue within the military’s approach. “They are the same orders across the whole country. ‘don’t leave witnesses, dead men don’t talk.’” This chilling assessment underscores the deep-seated challenges and human rights concerns facing Mexico under its new leadership as it grapples with the persistent and evolving threat of cartel violence.
