Mexico’s 2024 presidential election resulted in a landslide victory for Claudia Sheinbaum, making history as the country’s first female president. Sheinbaum, a close ally of outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, secured nearly 60% of the popular vote, the highest percentage since Mexico’s transition to democracy in 2001. This victory grants her significant power, including the ability to enact constitutional reforms. However, beneath the surface of this triumph lie complex challenges, including deep-rooted security concerns and threats to the rule of law.
Morena’s Supermajority and Constitutional Reform
Sheinbaum’s win was accompanied by Morena, her party, securing a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies, along with coalition partners. This dominance extends to state governorships, with Morena controlling 24 out of 32. While this provides Sheinbaum with unprecedented power to implement her agenda across all levels of government, it also presents challenges. Controlling the diverse and often fractious Morena party, composed of political opportunists with varying agendas, will be a significant hurdle. Furthermore, the looming presence of López Obrador and his potential influence over Morena could constrain Sheinbaum’s ability to deviate from his established policies. A recall referendum, a mechanism established by López Obrador, could further limit her autonomy.
A Historic Election Amidst Violence and Organized Crime
The 2024 election was historic, with two female candidates vying for the presidency. This reflects progress driven by Mexico’s parity laws, which have increased female representation in politics. However, this positive development contrasts sharply with the ongoing issue of violence against women, including a high rate of femicides. Sheinbaum has pledged to address this issue, building on her experience as Mexico City’s mayor. The election also saw the introduction of primary-like selection processes for presidential candidates, a move towards transparency but also highlighting the persistent issue of weak rule of law in Mexico.
Disturbingly, organized crime played a significant role in the election. Violence reached record levels, with hundreds of attacks against politicians, including numerous assassinations. Criminal groups exerted influence through intimidation, bribery, and even candidate selection. This underscores the growing power of cartels and their increasing control over territories, economies, and institutions. López Obrador’s passive approach to combating organized crime has demonstrably failed to curb this escalating threat.
The “Fourth Transformation” and Democratic Backsliding
Sheinbaum has committed to continuing López Obrador’s “Fourth Transformation,” a social and political restructuring aimed at empowering the poor and marginalized. However, this agenda has been accompanied by a concentration of power in the presidency, an expanded role for the military, and a weakening of democratic institutions. López Obrador’s attacks on independent bodies, NGOs, and freedom of expression raise concerns about democratic backsliding.
Looming Reforms and Sheinbaum’s Defining Moment
Before Sheinbaum even takes office, she faces a critical test. López Obrador, in his final months, is pushing for significant constitutional reforms that could further erode democratic checks and balances. These include changes to the electoral system, the judiciary, and control of the National Guard. Sheinbaum’s response to these proposed reforms will be crucial in defining her leadership and determining whether she will prioritize her own agenda or remain beholden to her predecessor. Her ability to navigate this complex political landscape and address the urgent challenges facing Mexico will shape the country’s future.
