The pervasive violence during the 2024 campaign period extended its reach beyond direct targets. A staggering 553 candidates requested state protection due to threats, while numerous others withdrew from the electoral race altogether due to intimidation. Despite the alarming rise in violence, substantive proposals to address this critical issue were notably absent from the platforms of leading presidential candidates.
This analysis delves into the key trends that emerged from the 2024 Mexican election cycle, spanning from the official commencement on September 7, 2023, set by the National Electoral Institute (INE), to June 15, 2024. This period includes the post-election phase from June 2nd to June 15th to account for post-electoral disputes and attacks on winning candidates.
- Violence Predominantly Targets Local Elections: Over 80% of attacks against candidates, their supporters, or family members were concentrated at the local level.
- Relentless Pressure on Local Authorities: Incumbent and former officials, even those not seeking re-election, were targeted in over 40% of violent events.
- Political Violence Extends Beyond Campaign Periods: While intensifying during campaigns, violence against political figures escalates early in the electoral cycle and persists well beyond election day.
- Organized Crime Fuels Significant Violence: Competition among organized crime groups is a major driver, with six of the ten states with the highest political violence also heavily impacted by organized crime.
- Local Power Struggles Intensify Violence: Less lethal forms of unrest, like riots and property destruction, constituted around 30% of incidents, indicating that local power dynamics and community grievances also trigger violence.
Local Elections at the Epicenter of Violent Attacks
Candidates running for office were the direct target of approximately 40% of the violent events during the 2024 electoral cycle. While local, state, and federal elections occurred on the same day, the vast majority – over 80% – of the 216 violent incidents targeting candidates, their families, or supporters, involved individuals vying for local positions, including mayoralties and municipal councils. The remaining 20% encompassed attacks against those running for federal roles and former candidates.
Veracruz provides a stark example of how local elections can become flashpoints for violence. Uniquely, Veracruz held its municipal elections in 2021, not in 2024 with most other federal entities. During those 2021 municipal elections, Veracruz was the state with the highest incidence of violence against political figures, with 57 events recorded in the six months leading up to and two weeks following the vote. However, in the 2024 cycle, ACLED recorded only about a quarter of that figure – 17 events – in Veracruz, dropping it to tenth place in the rankings. This dramatic shift underscores the correlation between the absence of municipal elections and reduced levels of violence.
Conversely, in states holding local elections in 2024, intense power competition fueled significant violence against officials, functionaries, and candidates. A large number of candidates in local races found themselves targeted by organized crime groups and political rivals. Candidates were particularly vulnerable in Hidalgo, Mexico State, Morelos, and Puebla, where they constituted the majority of victims. However, attacks against candidates proved deadliest in Chiapas and Guerrero, where 21 and 20 individuals, respectively, were killed in violent incidents involving candidates.
Although less pronounced, elections for state-level officials, such as governors and local deputies, also contributed to the violence. Several candidates for local congresses were targeted during this electoral cycle, particularly in states holding gubernatorial elections. In Chiapas and Morelos, armed men attacked two state senate candidates from the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition, while in Veracruz, gunmen assassinated MORENA’s candidate for local deputy. These instances highlight that while municipal elections are a major catalyst for political violence, significant state-level contests also contribute to the overall violence observed in 2024.
Of all incidents recorded since the electoral process began, at least 69 targeted women, many of whom were candidates for public office, representing 13% of the violence. However, this figure should not be interpreted as women being less likely to be targeted. Despite the 2024 elections being notable for women’s candidacies for president, Claudia Sheinbaum’s subsequent victory, and the INE’s guidelines for parties to ensure gender parity in candidacies, women remain underrepresented in local official bodies. In 2023, only 28% of local positions were held by women. In fact, female candidates received more threats than men during the 2024 electoral process, often forcing them to withdraw from races, as was the case for 217 female candidates in Zacatecas alone.
Pressure on Local Authorities: A Constant Target
Candidates were not the only political figures exposed to violence in the recent electoral cycle. Over 40% of the 540 violent incidents targeted current and former officials not running for election, such as mayors and public servants. This persistent violence against officials indicates an ongoing effort to exert pressure on political processes beyond election periods.
ACLED data reveals that public officials across various sectors are affected. Officials dealing with judicial and security matters, along with public administration treasurers, were the most frequently targeted non-elected officials. This trend is largely attributed to organized crime groups seeking to control local resources and key administrative areas, such as security and justice, which can impact their operations. Indeed, non-candidate public officials are targeted nationwide, but they represent a higher proportion of victims in states severely affected by organized crime-related violence, including Guanajuato, Guerrero, and Michoacán.
Family members of politicians were also victims in about 14% of attacks against political figures, either as direct targets or related casualties. Often, violence against family members is intended to pressure a political figure. For example, in October 2023, alleged members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) attempted to assassinate the brother of the mayor of Tacámbaro – himself a former mayor – after the group issued threats against him and his treasurer. In at least 28% of these cases, the targeted family members were also public officials or politicians, highlighting the concentration of political power within certain families, who are not spared from attacks, particularly in states like Guerrero, Michoacán, and Puebla.
A prominent example is the influential Salgado family in Guerrero state. Numerous family members hold elected positions and have been targets of threats and attacks in recent years. In August 2023, Zulma Carvajal Salgado – cousin of Guerrero Governor Evelyn Salgado Pineda, who succeeded her father, Félix Salgado Macedonio – survived an assassination attempt that killed her husband. The attack occurred shortly after she announced her intention to run in the Iguala municipal elections.
Electoral Violence: A Cycle Beyond Campaigns
Similar to previous electoral cycles, pre-election unrest, particularly violence against political figures, began to rise even before official campaigns commenced. Violence against political figures first surged in October 2023, shortly after the start of a period for citizen support gathering, which began on September 9, 2023, in some states. During this period, aspiring candidates for president, senate, and federal councils collect signatures to run as independent candidates. After a relatively stable period between November 2023 and January 2024, violent events targeting political figures increased substantially in February. This rise coincided with the end of the pre-campaign period in most states, when aspiring candidates from political parties engage in public activities to garner support for their nominations.
Trend of violence against political figures in Mexico during the 2023-2024 electoral cycle, showing peaks around campaign periods and election day, data from ACLED.
Violence against political figures early in the electoral cycle often signals territorial marking by perpetrators. A violent incident communicates control of an area and aims to deter candidates perceived as threatening or non-aligned. The majority of victims in at least 34 events recorded in October 2023 were current or former local representatives and their families, though some targeted elected positions. For example, on October 4th, the mayor of the Cuauhtémoc district of Mexico City, seeking to become a candidate for head of government of Mexico City for the Party of the Democratic Revolution, was attacked by a group while visiting the capital’s food supply center.
However, violence against political figures escalates significantly once candidacies are defined, as targets become more identifiable for those seeking to influence contests through violence. From the start of campaigns for federal and state elections in March and local elections in April, violence against political figures increased exponentially, peaking at 132 events in May, resulting in 55 fatalities and marking a record in both figures since ACLED began covering Mexico in 2018. Election day itself saw the highest number of events against political figures, with 80 recorded.
The risks to political figures are unlikely to cease post-election. In Guanajuato, for example, gunmen attacked the business of the elected mayor of Tarimoro days after his victory. Moreover, past electoral cycles suggest violence will remain elevated at least until inauguration ceremonies and persist throughout new administrations. ACLED recorded 210 and 179 events in the six months following the 2018 and 2021 elections, respectively, and consistent levels of violence over the years, totaling nearly 3,000 violent events against political figures since ACLED’s coverage began.
Organized Crime: A Major Driver of Election-Related Violence
ACLED records high levels of violence against political figures in Guanajuato and Michoacán, two of the federal entities most affected by organized crime violence in the year preceding the 2024 vote. This confirms that in some states, competition among criminal groups fuels violence against political figures. Six of the ten states with the highest levels of incidents against political figures during the electoral cycle are also among the ten most affected by organized crime-related violence in the same period. This is particularly true for Guerrero, which ranks second in the number of violent incidents against political figures, first in fatalities from these attacks, and fifth in violence likely related to organized crime during the electoral cycle. In Chiapas, the state with the highest level of violence against political figures during this electoral process, increased violence linked to rivalry between CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel contributed to a more than 90% increase in violence against political figures compared to the 2021 electoral cycle. High violence levels led to the cancellation of voting in Chicomuselo and Pantelhó.
Top 5 Mexican states with the highest recorded violence against political figures during the 2024 elections, highlighting Guerrero, Chiapas, Michoacán, Mexico, and Oaxaca, data from ACLED.
However, exceptions exist, particularly where a dominant organized crime group exerts hegemony. Jalisco and Sinaloa are among the ten most affected by organized crime violence but not among those with the most violence against political figures. They are strongholds of the CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel, respectively, suggesting their influence in local politics may be so entrenched that they need not resort to violence against political figures to consolidate it. Much of the violence in these states stems from these groups’ territorial control tactics and may relate to localized disputes with smaller groups, as with violence involving the Nueva Plaza cartel in the Tlajomulco area.
In some cases, a strong political establishment dominated by a few families also contributes to lower levels of violence against political figures. Nuevo León exemplifies this. Despite high organized crime violence, incidents against political figures have remained limited. Nuevo León is Mexico’s second-richest state, with an export-oriented manufacturing economy. Wealth and political power are concentrated in a few families. Leading gubernatorial candidates in the 2021 elections, some from these families, faced accusations of links to criminal organizations like Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel (CDG). Since the collapse of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)’s hegemony in the 1990s, the state has been governed by the Citizens’ Movement or independent candidates, with MORENA unable to make significant political inroads. In the recent elections, MORENA won only two of the state’s 51 municipalities.
Local Power Struggles: Another Key Driver of Violence
Beyond direct attacks on political figures, a significant portion – 30% – of incidents manifested as riots and property destruction. These events linked to public discontent with local representatives or rivalries between political actors were prominent in Chiapas, Puebla, and Hidalgo. These three states are more susceptible to local power struggles and electoral disputes due to pre-existing intercommunal conflicts and power concentration in local power brokers or caciques.
Before election campaigns, this violence form mainly erupted during protests where demonstrators confronted representatives for unmet demands. However, property destruction and collective violence can be used by political contenders to intimidate rivals. These events notably increased during the April-May campaign, including attacks on candidates’ and officials’ properties and collective actions against rival faction supporters. For example, on May 15th in Tlanchinol, Hidalgo, gunmen fired on a vehicle outside the home of a candidate for the municipal council from the MORENA-PANAL alliance, who had reported pre-election threats.
Finally, unrest around election day often relates to rejecting results or alleging irregularities or vote-buying during the process. For example, on June 1st in Puebla, a group of 200 people, including PRI and National Action Party (PAN) supporters, physically assaulted MORENA members in Venustiano Carranza over alleged vote-buying. Due to this incident, the State Electoral Institute annulled the election results due to irregularities. Similarly, in Chenalhó, Chiapas, Green Party of Mexico supporters clashed during an assembly to elect representatives amid allegations that the unrest was orchestrated by the mayor to prevent his candidate from losing.
