Mexico has made history by electing Claudia Sheinbaum as its first female president in 200 years of independence, marking a significant moment after an election day characterized by high citizen participation. With 90% of the official count tallied by the Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP), the candidate from the ruling party, MORENA, secured a landslide victory with 59.07% of the votes. Trailing behind were opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez with 27.92%, and Jorge Álvarez Máynez from Movimiento Ciudadano, who garnered 10.47%.
While the data strongly indicates Sheinbaum’s official election – already acknowledged by Gálvez and Máynez, and welcomed by the international community – the president-elect must await the formal confirmation from the district electoral counts, which commenced on June 5th. Sheinbaum has already been recognized as the most voted-for individual in Mexican history, amassing an estimated 35.5 million votes. Upon official confirmation of her victory, Sheinbaum is set to begin her term on October 1st.
State-by-State Breakdown of the Presidential Vote in Mexico
Yucatán Peninsula
In the southeastern Yucatán Peninsula, encompassing Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatán states, Sheinbaum’s triumph was decisive. Quintana Roo saw one of her most significant margins of victory over other presidential candidates, with 72.59% of the vote share. The opposition coalition candidate from PAN, PRI, and PRD followed distantly with 17.22%, and Máynez with 7.81%.
Campeche mirrored this trend, with preliminary PREP results awarding Sheinbaum 60.50% against Gálvez’s 21.35%. Yucatán presented a closer contest, though Sheinbaum still secured a substantial 59.73% of the votes, nearly a 30-point lead over Xóchitl Gálvez.
Gulf of Mexico Region
The presidential election outcomes in Tabasco and Veracruz, along the Gulf of Mexico, also overwhelmingly favored Sheinbaum. In Tabasco, the home state of outgoing President López Obrador, Sheinbaum achieved an impressive 80% of the votes, compared to a mere 11.36% for Gálvez. Veracruz, the fourth most populous state with 6 million voters, contributed significantly to Sheinbaum’s victory, granting her 66.27% of the votes, 23% to Gálvez, and 8% to Máynez.
Pacific Coast States
Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas, regions with a significant portion of the population living in poverty, also demonstrated strong support for Claudia Sheinbaum. Her vote percentage here surpassed her rivals substantially. Oaxaca provided her largest advantage, with 76% of the votes against 14.63% for Gálvez, her closest competitor in the state. Guerrero saw Sheinbaum garner 71.21% of ballots compared to Gálvez’s 19%. Chiapas presented nearly identical results: 71% for Sheinbaum, 16.65% for Gálvez, and 7.79% for Máynez. Michoacán showed the most competitive race among these Pacific states, with Sheinbaum at 54.38% and Gálvez at 29.78%.
Central Mexico
The central zone of Mexico, encompassing states with a high concentration of the electorate, including Querétaro, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Morelos, Puebla, and Tlaxcala, largely favored Sheinbaum. Querétaro delivered 71.25% of votes to Sheinbaum versus 19% for Xóchitl Gálvez. Hidalgo followed a similar pattern, granting Sheinbaum 67.13% of the votes. In the State of Mexico, the gap narrowed slightly, with 60.27% for Sheinbaum, 26.68% for Gálvez, and 10.75% for Máynez. Mexico City voters gave Sheinbaum 55% of their votes, and Gálvez 34.48%. The trend continued in Morelos and Puebla, where Sheinbaum led Gálvez by approximately a 40-point margin. Tlaxcala finalized the central region’s trend, with 68.70% for Sheinbaum and 15% for Gálvez.
Western Mexico
Guanajuato, Jalisco, Colima, Aguascalientes, and Nayarit constitute Western Mexico. Guanajuato presented a tighter race, with only a seven-percentage-point difference between the leading presidential candidates. Jalisco showed a wider margin, with 44.03% of votes for Sheinbaum, 36% for Gálvez, and 17.45% for Máynez. Colima voters allocated 53.86% of votes to the ruling party’s candidate, versus 30.38% for the opposition. Aguascalientes stood out as the only state where Sheinbaum did not win; here, she received 42.35% of the votes, surpassed by Gálvez with 46.14%. In contrast, Nayarit voters favored Sheinbaum with 62.46% of votes, and Gálvez with 20.81%.
Northwestern Mexico
The Northwestern states of Durango, Sinaloa, Sonora, and Chihuahua also contributed to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory. Durango voters chose her with 57.43%, ahead of Xóchitl Gálvez with 32.81%, and Jorge Álvarez Máynez with 7.54%. Sinaloa and Sonora displayed nearly 40-point differences between Sheinbaum and the opposition candidate. Chihuahua showed Sheinbaum with 52.46% of the votes, Gálvez with 35.31%, and Máynez with 9.69%.
Northeastern Mexico
MORENA’s candidate also triumphed in Northeastern Mexico. Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Tamaulipas, and Coahuila all contributed to Claudia Sheinbaum’s sweeping victory. San Luis Potosí and Tamaulipas registered the largest gaps between the presidential candidates in this region, with almost 30 points separating them, according to PREP data. Nuevo León saw Sheinbaum secure the majority with 44.37% against Gálvez’s 35.33%. Zacatecas saw 49.92% of votes for Sheinbaum, and Coahuila, 53.25% for Sheinbaum versus 38.98% for Gálvez and 5.51% for Máynez.
Baja California Peninsula
The final region confirming Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory was the Baja California Peninsula. In Baja California state, Sheinbaum received 65.31% of the votes compared to 22.08% for Gálvez, and 10.11% for Máynez. Baja California Sur concluded the peninsula’s results with 58.61% for Sheinbaum, 30.24% for the opposition candidate, and 8.83% for Máynez.
It is important to note that the results from PREP are preliminary and indicate voting trends. Official legal confirmation awaits the district electoral counts to determine the final outcome of Sunday’s elections.
