The Eastern Pacific Ocean is currently witnessing an exceptionally active hurricane season, underscored by the rapid intensification of Hurricane Willa into a category 5 storm. This powerful hurricane is now bearing down on the Mexican coastline and is expected to make landfall on Tuesday. The area most at risk lies along the border between the states of Nayarit to the south and Sinaloa to the north. Like several storms before it this season, Hurricane Willa underwent a period of rapid intensification, with its maximum sustained winds increasing by an astonishing 120 mph within a mere 48 hours. Current estimates place these winds at a dangerous 160 mph, surpassing even the strength of Hurricane Michael when it devastated Florida earlier in the month. This intense storm is not an isolated event; the entire Eastern Pacific basin is experiencing what some experts are calling the most active hurricane season ever recorded.
Hurricane Willa’s Forecasted Path and Intensity
Hurricane Willa maintains its formidable category 5 status as it progresses towards the coast of Mexico, posing a significant threat. Forecasting models are in strong agreement regarding the storm’s trajectory, predicting landfall over Las Islas Marias late Tuesday. Subsequently, the storm is expected to move inland across west-central Mexico into early Wednesday morning. The projected path indicates that Hurricane Willa should pass north of the popular tourist destination of Puerto Vallarta and the Riviera Nayarit, but just south of Mazatlan, another significant population center.
Intensity forecasts also show considerable consensus, anticipating Hurricane Willa to make landfall as a major hurricane. Conditions such as deep ocean heat and upper-level divergence are conducive to further intensification. However, increasing wind shear along its projected path before landfall is expected to be a limiting factor. Furthermore, there are indications of an eyewall replacement cycle beginning, a process that could potentially weaken the storm slightly but also expand its overall wind field, broadening the area of impact.
Anticipated Impacts of Hurricane Willa in Mexico
As Hurricane Willa approaches the Mexican coast on Tuesday, a dangerous storm surge and large, destructive waves are anticipated to impact a wide stretch of coastline, particularly to the right of the point of landfall. While the exact intensity at landfall remains uncertain, the example of Hurricane Michael earlier in the month demonstrates that borderline category 4 or 5 winds can inflict widespread structural and infrastructure damage, especially within the eyewall region. In addition to wind damage, rainfall is expected to be substantial, exceeding 5 to 10 inches along the coast, with even higher local amounts possible as the storm moves inland over the mountainous states of Zacatecas and Durango. As is typical with such storms, power outages, wind damage, and the potential for flash flooding and landslides are highly likely, and these risks extend well inland from the immediate landfall area.
Potential Impacts in the United States from Hurricane Willa Remnants
After traversing Mexico in the early hours of Wednesday, the remnants of Hurricane Willa are expected to track towards central and southern Texas. This region has already experienced above-average rainfall and significant flooding, particularly in the Hill Country near Austin and San Antonio. Additional rainfall of up to 4 to 5 inches is possible in localized areas, although the precise extent will depend on the exact track of the storm system. While this amount of rain is unlikely to cause widespread urban or street flooding, it could exacerbate already swollen rivers and lead to further localized riverine flooding. There are also potential secondary impacts on agriculture, with the cotton crop being particularly vulnerable to heavy rainfall at this stage in its development.
Hurricane Season Context and Historical Comparisons
Hurricane Willa is an exceptionally late-season category 4 or 5 storm in the Eastern Pacific Basin (EPAC), and its recurving path towards the Mexican coastline is a typical trajectory for storms forming this late in the year. Looking back at historical data, only a handful of storms of this intensity have developed in the EPAC this late in the season. The map below illustrates the tracks of all category 4+ storms in the mid-October to December period since 1957, highlighting Hurricane Patricia, a category 5 storm that made landfall in late October 2015, in white. Hurricane Willa is extending what is already a remarkably active 2018 hurricane season well into the fall months. It now stands as the 3rd category 5 storm of this season and the 10th major (category 3+) hurricane overall. When measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), the 2018 season in the EPAC is a staggering 238% above the average, even surpassing the very active 1992 season in terms of the combined longevity and intensity of hurricanes within the basin. This is particularly noteworthy and unexpected as the EPAC is not currently under the influence of El Niño conditions, which typically enhance hurricane activity in this region.
Eastern Pacific Basin Category 4+ Hurricane Tracks in late fall, including Hurricane Patricia in white.
Direct comparisons are being made between category 5 Hurricane Willa and category 5 Hurricane Patricia, which made landfall south of Puerto Vallarta in October 2015. Almost exactly three years prior to Willa, Hurricane Patricia was undergoing a period of rapid intensification that would ultimately break records for intensity not only in the EPAC but across the entire Western Hemisphere. At its peak intensity before landfall, Patricia reached maximum sustained winds of 215 mph. As is predicted for Hurricane Willa, Patricia weakened slightly before landfall but still made landfall as a strong category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph. Damage from Patricia was extensive in the state of Jalisco, primarily affecting agriculture and infrastructure, as the landfall area was relatively rural. Hurricane Willa is forecast to make landfall further north, again in a somewhat rural area, with an anticipated intensity in the category 3 to 4 range, still posing significant risks for Hurricane Mexico impacts.
