On June 2nd, Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate from the ruling Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (MORENA) party, won the presidential election with nearly 60% of the vote, marking a historic moment as the first female president in Mexico’s history. Simultaneously with the presidential race, Mexican voters participated in legislative, state, and municipal elections. However, the electoral process was marred by a record level of violence, including assassinations and attacks targeting candidates and political figures. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded over 330 incidents of violence against political figures during the campaign period, from the start of the federal campaign on March 1st to election day on June 2nd. Tragically, at least 95 of these incidents resulted in one or more fatalities. This level of violence during the 2024 campaign surpassed previous elections, exceeding the violence recorded in the 2018 and 2021 general and federal elections, which saw 254 and 257 events, respectively.
The elevated violence during the 2024 campaign period extended beyond direct targets. A staggering 553 candidates requested state protection due to threats, while others chose to withdraw from the elections altogether. Despite this alarming context, substantive proposals to address this violence were notably absent from the campaigns of the leading presidential candidates.
This report delves into the key trends emerging from the 2024 election cycle, drawing on data and analysis from ACLED, which defines the electoral cycle as the period between September 7, 2023 – the official start of the federal electoral cycle as set by the National Electoral Institute (INE) – and June 15, 2024, including the post-election period to account for disputes and attacks against winning candidates.
- Violent attacks predominantly targeted local races: Over 80% of the incidents against candidates, their supporters, or families involved local-level races.
- Perpetrators relentlessly pressured local authorities: Current and former officials not running for office were targeted in over 40% of violent events.
- Violence against political figures extends beyond campaign periods: While violence intensifies during campaigns, it escalates from the electoral cycle’s onset and persists well past election day.
- Organized crime competition fuels significant violence: Six of the ten states with the highest violence against political figures are also heavily impacted by organized crime violence, although notable exceptions exist.
- Local power struggles are a major violence driver: Less lethal forms of unrest, like riots and property destruction, constitute about 30% of events, indicating that local power dynamics and community grievances also trigger violence.
Local Races at the Epicenter of Violence
Approximately 40% of violent events targeting political figures during the 2024 election cycle were directed at candidates vying for public office. While local, state, and federal elections occurred on the same day, over 80% of the 216 violent incidents against candidates, their families, or supporters targeted political figures running for local positions, including mayoralties and municipal councils. The remaining 20% comprised attacks against individuals running for federal office and former candidates.
Veracruz provides a stark example of how local elections can drive violence. Unlike most federal entities holding municipal elections in 2024, Veracruz will hold these elections in 2025. During the last municipal elections in 2021, Veracruz was the state with the highest level of violence against political figures, with 57 events recorded in the six months leading up to the vote and the two weeks after. However, this time, ACLED recorded about a quarter of the 2021 figure—17 events—in Veracruz, dropping it to tenth place in the ranking (see graph below). This drastic change highlights how the absence of municipal elections can correlate with lower levels of violence.
Violence targeting political figures in Mexico from June 2023 to June 2024, showing peaks during key electoral periods.
In other states, the presence of local elections also fueled high levels of violence against officials, functionaries, and candidates due to intense power competition. A significant number of candidates running in local elections found themselves targeted by organized crime groups and political rivals. Candidates were particularly vulnerable in Hidalgo, Mexico, Morelos, and Puebla states, where they constituted the majority of victims. However, attacks against candidates proved deadlier in Chiapas and Guerrero states, where 21 and 20 individuals, respectively, died in violent incidents involving candidates.
Though on a smaller scale, elections for state-level officials, such as governors and local deputies, also contributed to violence. Several candidates for local congresses were targeted during this electoral cycle, particularly in states holding gubernatorial elections. In Chiapas and Morelos, armed men attacked two state senate candidates from the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition, while in Veracruz, armed men fatally shot a MORENA candidate for local deputy. These instances indicate that while municipal elections are a significant trigger for political violence, crucial state-level contests also contribute to the violence observed in 2024.
Of all incidents recorded since the electoral process began, at least 69 targeted women, many of whom were candidates for public office, representing 13% of the violence. This figure should not be interpreted as women being less likely to be targeted. Despite the 2024 elections being notable for women’s candidacies for president, Claudia Sheinbaum’s subsequent victory, and the National Electoral Institute’s guidelines for parties to ensure gender parity in candidacies, women remain underrepresented in local official bodies. In 2023, only 28% of local positions were held by women. In fact, female candidates received more threats than men during the 2024 electoral process, often forcing them to withdraw from the race, as was the case for 217 female candidates in Zacatecas alone.
Relentless Pressure on Local Authorities
Candidates were not the only political figures exposed to violence in the recent electoral cycle. Over 40% of the 540 incidents of violence targeted current and former officials not running for election, such as mayors and public functionaries. The persistence of violence against these officials indicates an intent to exert pressure on political processes beyond election periods.
ACLED data reveals that public officials across different sectors are affected. Officials dealing with judicial and security matters and public administration treasurers were the most frequently targeted non-elected officials. This trend is largely attributed to organized crime groups’ interest in controlling local resources and key administrative areas, such as security and the judiciary, which can impact their operations. Indeed, non-running public officials are targeted nationwide, but they represent a larger share of victims in states severely affected by organized crime-related violence, such as Guanajuato, Guerrero, and Michoacán.
Family members of politicians were also victims in around 14% of attacks against politicians, either as direct targets or related casualties. Often, violence against family members reflects an attempt to pressure a political figure. For example, in October 2023, alleged members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) attempted to kill the brother of the mayor of Tacámbaro—himself a former mayor—after the group issued threats against him and his treasurer. In at least 28% of these cases, the targeted family members were also public officials or politicians, highlighting that a few families concentrate significant political power, yet are not spared from attacks, especially in states like Guerrero, Michoacán, and Puebla.
A notable example is the influential Salgado family in Guerrero state. Several members of the Salgado family hold elected positions and have been targets of threats and attacks in recent years. In August 2023, Zulma Carvajal Salgado—cousin of the governor of Guerrero, Evelyn Salgado Pineda, who succeeded her father, Félix Salgado Macedonio—was victim of an attack that killed her husband. The attack occurred shortly after she announced her intention to run in the municipal elections in Iguala.
Electoral Violence Extends Beyond Campaigning
Similar to previous electoral processes, pre-election unrest, particularly violence against political figures, began to rise even before campaigns officially commenced. Violence targeting political figures experienced an initial spike in October 2023, shortly after the start of a period called citizen support, which began on September 9, 2023, in some states. During this period, aspiring candidates for president, senate, and federal councils gather signatures to run as independent candidates. After a relatively steady level between November 2023 and January 2024, violent events against political figures increased substantially in February (see graph below). This increase coincided with the end of the pre-campaign period in most states, when aspiring candidates from political parties conduct public activities to garner support for their nominations.
It is once candidacies are defined, however, that violence against political figures skyrockets, as targets become more identifiable to those seeking to influence contests through violent means. Since the start of the campaign for federal and state elections in March, and local elections in April, violence against political figures increased exponentially, peaking at 132 events in May, resulting in 55 fatalities and marking a record in both figures since ACLED began covering the country in 2018. Election Day itself experienced the highest number of events against political figures, with 80 events recorded.
Nevertheless, risks to political figures are unlikely to cease after elections. In Guanajuato, for example, armed men attacked the business of the elected mayor of Tarimoro days after he won the election. Moreover, past electoral cycles suggest that violence will not only remain high at least until the inauguration ceremonies, but will continue throughout the new administrations. ACLED recorded 210 and 179 events in the six months after the 2018 and 2021 elections, respectively, as well as consistent levels of violence over the years, totaling nearly 3,000 events of violence against political figures since ACLED began its coverage.
Organized Crime Competition: A Key Driver of Election-Related Violence
ACLED records high levels of violence against political figures in Guanajuato and Michoacán states, two of the federal entities most affected by organized crime violence in the year prior to the 2024 vote, confirming that in some states, competition between criminal groups drives violence against political figures. Six of the ten states with the highest levels of incidents against political figures during the electoral cycle are also among the ten most affected by organized crime-related violence in the same period (see map below). This is particularly true for Guerrero, which ranks second for the number of violent incidents against political figures, but first for the number of fatalities in these attacks, and fifth for violence likely related to organized crime during the electoral cycle (see table below). In Chiapas, the state with the highest levels of violence against political figures during this electoral process, increased violence linked to the rivalry between CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel contributed to a more than 90% increase in violence against political figures compared to the 2021 electoral cycle. High levels of violence led to the cancellation of voting in Chicomuselo and Pantelhó.
Map of Mexico highlighting states with high levels of violence targeting political figures and organized crime influence during the 2024 election cycle.
However, exceptions to this pattern exist, particularly when a single organized crime group exerts hegemony. Indeed, Jalisco and Sinaloa states are among the ten most affected by organized crime violence, but not among those with the most violence against political figures. They are also, respectively, the strongholds of CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel, suggesting that their influence in local politics may be such that they do not need to resort to violence against political figures to consolidate that influence. Much of the violence recorded in those states, in fact, stems from these groups’ tactics to exert their territorial control and may occasionally relate to localized disputes with smaller groups, such as in the case of violence involving the Nueva Plaza Cartel in the Tlajomulco area.
Conversely, in some cases, the presence of a strong political establishment dominated by a few families also contributes to low levels of violence against political figures. Nuevo León is an example. Despite recording some of the highest levels of organized crime violence, violent incidents against political figures have remained limited in the past year. Nuevo León is the second-richest state in the country, with an economy led by export-oriented manufacturing. A small number of families concentrate most of the wealth and political power. The main candidates for governor in the 2021 elections, some of whom are part of these families, have been accused of links with criminal organizations such as Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel (CDG). Furthermore, since the collapse of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) hegemony in the 1990s, the state has been governed by the Citizen Movement or independent candidates, but MORENA has failed to make significant inroads in the state’s political sphere. In the latest elections, in fact, it only won two of the 51 municipalities in the state.
Local Power Struggles: Another Significant Driver of Violence
Beyond direct attacks against political figures, a significant portion—30%—of incidents manifested as riots and property destruction. These events were linked to expressions of public discontent towards local representatives or rivalries between competing political actors. They were particularly prominent in Chiapas, Puebla, and Hidalgo (see graph below). These three states are more susceptible to local power struggles and electoral disputes due to pre-existing inter-community conflicts and the concentration of power in the hands of local power brokers or caciques.
Before electoral campaigns began, this form of violence mainly erupted during protests where demonstrators confronted representatives for failing to meet their demands. However, property destruction and collective violence can also be used by political contenders to intimidate their adversaries. Indeed, these events notably increased during the April and May campaign period, and included attacks against the properties of candidates and officials, and collective actions against supporters of a rival faction. For example, on May 15, in Tlanchinol, Hidalgo, armed men shot at a vehicle parked in front of the house of a candidate seeking to integrate the municipal council for the MORENA-PANAL alliance, who had already reported receiving threats before the elections.
Lastly, unrest surrounding election day is often linked to the rejection of results, or allegations of irregularities or vote-buying during the process by a candidate. For example, on June 1, in Puebla, a group of 200 people, including supporters of the PRI and National Action Party (PAN), physically assaulted MORENA members in Venustiano Carranza over alleged vote buying. Due to the incident, the State Electoral Institute decided to annul the election results due to irregularities. Similarly, in Chenalhó, Chiapas, supporters of the Green Party of Mexico clashed during an assembly to elect their representatives amid allegations that the unrest was orchestrated by the mayor to prevent his candidate from losing.
