The landscape of migration at the U.S.-Mexico border has experienced significant shifts, largely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and evolving U.S. policies regarding asylum access. These factors have led to fluctuations in migration patterns, often characterized by sharp and unpredictable changes. The following analysis, supported by visual data from fiscal years 2020-2022 and the most recent three-month period (August-October), highlights the primary countries of origin for migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border, offering insights into the dynamic nature of migration in the region.
Mexico: A Consistent Presence
Historically, Mexico has consistently ranked as the leading country of origin for migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border. A significant majority, exceeding 85% until 2012, of migrants apprehended by Border Patrol were Mexican citizens. This demographic has shifted over time, decreasing to 20% by 2019. However, recent data indicates a resurgence, with Mexican migrants constituting 33% in fiscal year 2022 (October 2021-September 2022) and 28% in October 2022. Notably, in 2022, U.S. authorities frequently utilized Title 42—a pandemic-era policy later struck down by a federal judge—to expel Mexican migrants, accounting for 86% of expulsions. In October 2022, a striking 85% of Mexican migrants encountered were single adults, a considerably higher proportion compared to the average of 69% across all nationalities.
- 2021-2022 Change: +23%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 86%
- Single Adults (2022): 91%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 5%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 3%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 9%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Tucson, Arizona; San Diego, California; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico
Cuba: The Impact of Policy Shifts
Migration from Cuba to the U.S.-Mexico border experienced a dramatic surge, fueled by ongoing state repression and a severe economic crisis within Cuba. This trend intensified after Nicaragua waived visa requirements for Cuban visitors in November 2021, simplifying travel to the North American continent. Fiscal year 2022 witnessed over 220,000 encounters with Cuban citizens at the U.S.-Mexico border, representing approximately 2% of Cuba’s total population.
A significant factor distinguishing Cuban migration is Mexico’s policy of not accepting Title 42 expulsions of Cubans across land borders. Furthermore, Cuba had not permitted U.S. expulsion flights until recently. Consequently, in 2022, 98% of Cubans apprehended at the border were processed within the United States under standard immigration procedures. The Cuban Adjustment Act further allows many Cubans to apply for permanent resident status after residing in the U.S. for a year. However, in a recent development in November 2022, Cuba agreed to accept U.S. deportation flights, potentially signaling a shift in these dynamics.
- 2021-2022 Change: +471%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 2%
- Single Adults (2022): 76%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 23%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 0%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 0%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Del Rio, Texas; Yuma, Arizona/California; Rio Grande Valley, Texas
Venezuela: Navigating the Darién Gap
Venezuelan migrants began arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border in substantial numbers starting in 2021. Initially, many flew into Mexico, which did not require visas for Venezuelan citizens at the time. However, in January 2022, following U.S. encouragement, Mexico implemented a visa requirement for Venezuelans. While this initially led to a decrease in Venezuelan migration, numbers rebounded as significant numbers of migrants undertook the perilous overland journey through Panama’s Darién Gap jungle to reach the U.S. border.
Throughout fiscal year 2022, only a small fraction (1%) of Venezuelan migrants were expelled under Title 42, primarily those with existing migratory status in Mexico. In October 2022, a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and Mexico was announced, with Mexico agreeing to accept Venezuelan citizens expelled under Title 42. The immediate effect of this policy shift was evident in a one-third reduction in Venezuelan migration between September and October.
- 2021-2022 Change: +286%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 1%
- Single Adults (2022): 64%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 35%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 1%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 0%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Del Rio, Texas; Yuma, Arizona/California; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico
Nicaragua: Fleeing Political and Economic Instability
Nicaraguan citizens continue to migrate in large numbers, driven by the ongoing repression of the Ortega regime and persistent economic challenges. The U.S. government has maintained a consistent practice of operating bi-monthly removal flights to Nicaragua. Despite these efforts, the vast majority (97%) of Nicaraguan migrants encountered at the border in 2022 were processed within the United States under standard immigration law.
- 2021-2022 Change: +227%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 3%
- Single Adults (2022): 80%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 18%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 2%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 0%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Rio Grande Valley, Texas; Del Rio, Texas; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico
Colombia: Visa-Free Travel and Rising Concerns
Colombian citizens, seeking refuge from violence and economic hardship, generally benefit from visa-free travel to Mexico. However, there has been a notable increase in reports of Colombians being denied entry into Mexico upon arrival at airports, or facing extortion by Mexican authorities. Despite the Pacific Alliance agreement facilitating visa-free travel between Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru, these issues persist. Since April, the U.S. government has been conducting approximately 20 monthly expulsion or removal flights to Colombia. Migration from Colombia experienced a dramatic twenty-fold increase between 2021 and 2022.
- 2021-2022 Change: +1,918%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 9%
- Single Adults (2022): 52%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 48%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 1%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 1%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Yuma, Arizona/California; Del Rio, Texas; San Diego, California
Guatemala: The Impact of Title 42 on Migration Decline
Mexico’s acceptance of Title 42 expulsions for Guatemalan citizens across land borders led to U.S. authorities expelling 67% of Guatemalans encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2022. The restrictive nature of Title 42 on asylum requests for Guatemalans contributed to an 18% decrease in migration from Guatemala between fiscal years 2021 and 2022. Notably, 26% of Guatemalan migrants encountered in 2022 were unaccompanied children, all of whom were processed under standard U.S. immigration law, as the Biden administration exempted unaccompanied minors from Title 42.
- 2021-2022 Change: -18%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 67%
- Single Adults (2022): 58%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 16%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 26%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 1%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Rio Grande Valley, Texas; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico; Tucson, Arizona
Honduras: Similar Trends to Guatemala Under Title 42
Honduran citizens faced similar circumstances to Guatemalans, with Mexico accepting Title 42 expulsions. U.S. authorities expelled 63% of Hondurans encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2022. The constraints imposed by Title 42 on asylum seeking resulted in a 33% decrease in migration from Honduras between fiscal years 2021 and 2022. Unaccompanied children constituted 18% of Honduran migrants encountered in 2022. A significant portion, just over half, of Honduran migrants were encountered in the Rio Grande Valley sector of the Border Patrol in south Texas during 2022.
- 2021-2022 Change: -33%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 63%
- Single Adults (2022): 47%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 35%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 18%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 6%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Rio Grande Valley, Texas; Del Rio, Texas; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico
Peru: Visa-Free Travel and U.S. Removal Flights
Peruvian citizens, like Colombians, generally benefit from visa-free travel to Mexico. The U.S. government operated 10 expulsion or removal flights to Peru between August and October 2022.
- 2021-2022 Change: +1,485%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 2%
- Single Adults (2022): 49%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 50%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 1%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 0%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Yuma, Arizona/California; Del Rio, Texas; Tucson, Arizona
Ecuador: Visa Restrictions and the Darién Gap Route
Ecuadorian migrants began arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border in significant numbers in 2021, primarily flying into Mexico due to the absence of visa requirements for Ecuadorian citizens. However, in September 2021, Mexico, under U.S. pressure, imposed a visa requirement on Ecuadorians. While this led to an initial decrease in Ecuadorian migration, numbers have been steadily increasing as migrants increasingly undertake the dangerous overland journey through the Darién Gap. Since August 2022, Ecuador has become the second-leading country of origin for migrants traversing the Darién region, with numbers more than tripling between September and October to reach 8,487. During fiscal year 2022, a small percentage (5%) of Ecuadorian migrants were expelled under Title 42, and the U.S. government conducted 20 removal flights to Ecuador over the preceding year.
- 2021-2022 Change: -75%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 5%
- Single Adults (2022): 42%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 54%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 4%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 0%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): El Paso, Texas/New Mexico; Rio Grande Valley, Texas; Del Rio, Texas
Haiti: Humanitarian Exemptions and Orderly Migration
Many Haitian citizens arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border had previously resided and worked in Brazil, Chile, or other South American countries for several years after leaving Haiti. 2021 witnessed a large-scale Haitian migration through the Darién Gap, culminating in the controversial Border Patrol incident in Del Rio, Texas. The Biden administration responded with a large-scale campaign of aerial Title 42 expulsions of Haitians back to Haiti, with 240 flights removing nearly 25,000 individuals since September 2021.
However, since June 2022, Haitian migration at the border has become more orderly. A system of humanitarian exemptions from Title 42 has allowed 96% of encountered Haitians to approach ports of entry, with only 0.5% expelled under Title 42. There was only one removal flight to Haiti between September and October, indicating a significant shift in policy and practice.
- 2021-2022 Change: +14%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 23%
- Single Adults (2022): 41%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 58%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 1%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 46%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): CBP’s Laredo Field Office, Texas; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico; Yuma, Arizona/California
El Salvador: Gang Crackdowns and Migration Steadiness
Similar to Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico accepts Title 42 expulsions of Salvadoran citizens. U.S. authorities expelled 58% of Salvadorans encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in fiscal year 2022. Unaccompanied children accounted for 17% of Salvadoran migrants encountered in 2022. A significant majority, 69%, of Salvadoran migrants were encountered in the Rio Grande Valley sector of the Border Patrol in south Texas in 2022.
Despite the limitations imposed by Title 42 on asylum requests, migration from El Salvador decreased only slightly (2%) between fiscal years 2021 and 2022. This smaller decline compared to Guatemala and Honduras may be linked to the Bukele government’s extensive crackdown on suspected gang members, which has resulted in over 57,000 arrests since late March in El Salvador, potentially driving more people to flee despite Title 42.
- 2021-2022 Change: -2%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 58%
- Single Adults (2022): 53%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 30%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 17%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 4%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Rio Grande Valley, Texas; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico; Del Rio, Texas
Russia: A Northern Route to the Border
Encounters with migrants from Russia have steadily increased, exceeding 200 in April 2021, 1,000 in September 2021, and 2,000 in December 2021. The 3,879 encounters in October 2022 represent a new peak. Over 75% of Russian migrants are encountered in and around San Diego, California, with many arriving at the San Ysidro port of entry. Some have even attempted to drive across the borderline in rented vehicles.
- 2021-2022 Change: +430%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 1%
- Single Adults (2022): 42%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 57%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 0%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 76%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): CBP’s San Diego Field Office, California; Yuma, Arizona/California; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico
India: Seeking Asylum from Nationalist Policies
Encounters with migrants from India have also risen, surpassing 1,000 in December 2021 and 2,000 in May 2022. A significant majority, 90%, of Indian citizens are encountered by Border Patrol agents in Arizona and southeast California. Many are reportedly fleeing persecution linked to India’s nationalist government.
- 2021-2022 Change: +607%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 0%
- Single Adults (2022): 71%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 27%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 2%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 0%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Yuma, Arizona/California; El Centro, California; San Diego, California
Turkey: Eleven-Fold Increase in Migration
Migration from Turkey has increased dramatically, multiplying eleven-fold between fiscal years 2021 and 2022. Nearly all Turkish migrants are encountered by Border Patrol in and near El Paso, Texas.
- 2021-2022 Change: +996%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 0%
- Single Adults (2022): 77%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 22%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 1%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 1%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): El Paso, Texas/New Mexico (97% of encounters)
Brazil: Visa Requirements and Migration Decline
Migration from Brazil reached unprecedented levels in 2021, with most migrants flying into Mexico due to the absence of visa requirements for Brazilian citizens. In December 2021, Mexico, again under U.S. suggestion, imposed a visa requirement on Brazilians. While migration from Brazil decreased initially, it rebounded to over 4,000 per month between May and August 2022. However, relatively few of these Brazilian migrants transited the Darién Gap. In September and October 2022, encounters with Brazilian migrants at the border fell sharply, dropping below 1,000 per month for the first time since February 2021, for reasons that remain unclear. A significant majority (77%) of Brazilian migrants encountered in 2022 were family unit members.
- 2021-2022 Change: -6%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 9%
- Single Adults (2022): 23%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 77%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 0%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 5%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): Yuma, Arizona/California; El Paso, Texas/New Mexico; San Diego, California
China: A Growing Northern Migration Route
Migration from China increased five-fold between fiscal years 2021 and 2022. The majority of Chinese migrants are encountered by Border Patrol or CBP in and around San Diego, California, indicating a similar northern route as observed with Russian migrants.
- 2021-2022 Change: +384%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 2%
- Single Adults (2022): 92%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 7%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 0%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 9%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): San Diego, California; Rio Grande Valley, Texas; CBP’s Laredo Field Office, Texas
Romania: Roma Migrants Seeking Entry
A significant portion of migrants from Romania are members of the Roma ethnic group, often facing persecution in Europe. Their numbers at the U.S.-Mexico border increased by 47% between fiscal years 2021 and 2022. Border Patrol encounters with Romanian migrants predominantly occur in and around San Diego, California, and Yuma, Arizona. A large majority (78%) of Romanian migrants encountered in 2022 were family unit members.
- 2021-2022 Change: +47%
- Expulsion under Title 42 (2022): 0%
- Single Adults (2022): 19%
- Family Unit Members (2022): 78%
- Unaccompanied Children (2022): 3%
- Encounters at Ports of Entry (2022): 2%
- Primary Encounter Sectors (2022): San Diego, California; Yuma, Arizona/California; Rio Grande Valley, Texas
The data reveals a complex and evolving migration landscape at the U.S.-Mexico border. Shifting geopolitical dynamics, policy changes such as Title 42, and economic and social conditions in various countries of origin are all significant factors shaping these trends. The fluctuations observed in migration patterns underscore the need for ongoing analysis and adaptable policy responses to effectively manage migration in the region.
