On June 2nd, Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate from the ruling party Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (MORENA), won the presidential election with nearly 60% of the vote, becoming the first female president in the country’s history. Alongside the presidential election, voters in Mexico simultaneously participated in legislative, state, and municipal elections. The electoral process was marred by assassinations and attacks against candidates and other political figures. ACLED records more than 330 incidents of violence targeting political figures during the electoral campaign, between the start of the federal campaign on March 1st and election day on June 2nd. At least 95 incidents resulted in one or more fatalities. The level of violence during this electoral campaign marks a historic high, eclipsing the violence recorded in the 2018 general elections and the 2021 federal elections, which had 254 and 257 events, respectively.
The elevated levels of violence during the 2024 campaign period also affected candidates who were not direct targets of violent incidents. At least 553 candidates requested state protection after receiving threats,16Meganoticias, ‘553 candidatos cuenta con protección federal,’ May 28, 2024 while others decided to withdraw from the race due to threats.17Alcaldes de México, ‘935 candidatos se retiran de sus aspiraciones políticas en Chiapas y Michoacán,’ May 24, 2024 Nonetheless, none of the leading presidential candidates put forward substantial proposals to address this problem.
This report explores the main trends of the 2024 electoral cycle:18This report considers the electoral cycle to be the period between September 7, 2023 – the official start of the federal electoral cycle set by the National Electoral Institute (INE) – and June 15, 2024. It includes the post-voting period, from June 2nd to June 15th, to account for post-electoral disputes or attacks against winning candidates. See National Electoral Institute, ‘Inicia el Proceso Electoral Federal 2023-2024,’ September 7, 2023; National Electoral Institute, ‘Concluye INE cómputos del Proceso Electoral Federal 2023-2024,’ June 9, 2024
- Violent attacks are mainly committed at the local level: of the 216 events against candidates, their supporters, or relatives, over 80% involved candidacies for local positions.
- Perpetrators relentlessly try to exert pressure on local authorities: current and former officials who were not running for new positions were also targeted in more than 40% of events.
- Violence targeting political figures occurs beyond the campaign period: while violence intensifies during the electoral campaign, it begins to rise from the beginning of the electoral cycle and continues well beyond election day.
- Competition between organized crime groups is driving much of the violence: six of the ten states that recorded the most events of violence against political figures are also among the ten most affected by organized crime violence, but with some notable exceptions.
- Competition among power brokers at the local level is also a major generator of violence: less violent types of disorder, such as riots and property destruction, account for around 30% of events, showing that not only organized crime, but also local power struggles and community claims of irregularities during the process or rejection of results can trigger violence against political figures.
Violent Attacks Predominantly Occur at the Local Level
Approximately 40% of violent events targeting political figures during the 2024 electoral cycle in Mexico were directed at candidates running for public office. While local, state, and federal elections were held on the same day, of the 216 violent incidents against candidates, their families, or supporters, over 80% were against political figures running for local positions, including mayoralties and municipal councils. The remaining 20% includes attacks against individuals running for federal office and also against former candidates.
Veracruz stands out as a notable example of how local elections can fuel violence. Unlike most federal entities holding municipal elections in 2024, Veracruz will hold these elections in 2025. During the last municipal elections in 2021, Veracruz was the state with the highest level of violence against political figures, with 57 events recorded in the six months leading up to the vote and the two weeks after. However, this time ACLED records about a quarter of the 2021 figure —17 events— in Veracruz, dropping to tenth place in the ranking (see graph below). The drastic change in violence levels underscores how the absence of municipal elections can be linked to lower levels of violence.
In other states, the holding of local elections in Mexico also led to a high level of violence against officials, officers, and candidates as a result of intense competition for power, with a large number of candidates running for local elections in the sights of organized crime groups and political rivals. Candidates were particularly vulnerable in the states of Hidalgo, Mexico, Morelos, and Puebla, where they account for the majority of victims. However, attacks against candidates are deadlier in the states of Chiapas and Guerrero, where 21 and 20 people died, respectively, in violent incidents involving candidates.
Although on a smaller scale, elections for state officials, such as governors and local deputies, are also drivers of violence. Several candidates for local congresses were targeted in this electoral cycle, particularly in states where gubernatorial elections were held. In Chiapas and Morelos, armed men attacked two state senate candidates for the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition, while in Veracruz, armed men fatally shot the MORENA candidate for local deputy. These examples indicate that, while municipal elections are a significant trigger for political violence, important state-level contests can also contribute to the violence observed in Mexico’s 2024 elections.
Of all incidents recorded since the start of the electoral process, at least 69 were committed against women, many of whom were candidates for public office, accounting for 13% of the violence. However, this should not be interpreted as women being less likely to be targeted. Despite the 2024 elections being highlighted by women’s candidacies for the presidency, the subsequent victory of Claudia Sheinbaum, and the guidelines from the National Electoral Institute for parties to guarantee gender parity in candidacies, there remains insufficient representation of women in local official bodies. In 2023, only 28% of local positions were held by women.19INE, ‘Preocupa a INE la violencia política contra la mujer en el proceso electoral y cargos públicos,’ October 26, 2023 In fact, female candidates received more threats than men during the 2024 electoral process,20Data Cívica, México Evalúa, Animal Político, ‘Recuento de la violencia en contra de actores políticos por parte de grupos del crimen organizado durante el periodo electoral,’ Votar entre Balas, May 2024 often forcing them to withdraw from the race, as was the case with 217 female candidates in Zacatecas alone.21Isaías León, ‘Elecciones 2024: En Zacatecas renuncian a candidatura 217 mujeres,’ El Financiero, April 27, 2024
Perpetrators Relentlessly Seek to Pressure Local Authorities
Candidates were not the only political figures exposed to violence in the current electoral cycle. More than 40% of the 540 incidents of violence targeted current and former officials who were not running for election, such as mayors and public servants. The persistence of violence against these officers and officials indicates an intent to exert pressure on political processes beyond electoral periods.
ACLED data reveals that public officials from different sectors are affected. Officials dealing with judicial and security issues, and public administration treasurers were the most frequently targeted non-elected officials. This trend is largely attributed to the interests of organized crime groups in controlling local resources and key administrative areas, such as security and judicial, that may affect their activities. Indeed, non-running public officials are targeted nationwide, but they account for a higher proportion of victims in states severely affected by organized crime-related violence, such as Guanajuato, Guerrero, and Michoacán.
Family members of politicians were also among the victims in around 14% of attacks against politicians, either as direct targets or related casualties. Often, violence against family members reflects an intention to exert pressure on a political figure. For instance, in October 2023, alleged members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) attempted to kill the brother of the mayor of Tacámbaro —himself a former mayor— after the group issued threats against him and his treasurer. In at least 28% of these cases, the targeted family members were also public officials or politicians, underscoring that a few families concentrate much political power but are not spared from attacks, especially in states like Guerrero, Michoacán, and Puebla.
A notable example is the influential Salgado family from the state of Guerrero. Several family members of the Salgado family hold elected positions and have also been targets of threats and attacks in recent years. In August 2023, Zulma Carvajal Salgado —cousin of the governor of Guerrero, Evelyn Salgado Pineda, who succeeded her father, Félix Salgado Macedonio— was victim of an attack that resulted in the death of her husband. The attack occurred shortly after she announced her intention to run in the municipal elections of Iguala.
Electoral Violence Extends Beyond the Campaign Period
As in previous electoral processes, pre-election disorder, particularly violence against political figures, began to rise even before campaigns officially started. Violence against political figures experienced an initial spike in October 2023, shortly after the start of a period called citizen support, which began on September 9, 2023 in some states. During this period, aspiring candidates for president, senate, and federal councils, collect signatures to run as independent candidates. After a relatively constant level between November 2023 and January 2024, violent events against political figures increased substantially in February (see graph below). This increase coincided with the end of the pre-campaign period in most states, when aspiring candidates from political parties carry out public activities to gather support for their candidacies.
Combined chart – Violence targeting political figures 11 June 2023 to 16 June 2024 – Spanish
The violence against political figures that occurs very early in the Mexican elections cycle is often related to perpetrators’ intention to mark territory. A violent incident signals that the area is under their influence and is intended to prevent candidates they deem threatening or unaligned from running.22Andro Aguilar, ‘La violencia política ensombrece el arranque del proceso electoral 2024,’ Animal Político, November 25, 2023 Most victims in at least 34 events recorded in October 2023 were current or former local representatives, and their family members, but some targeted elected positions. For example, on October 4, the mayor of the Cuauhtémoc district of Mexico City, who was seeking to become a candidate for head of government of Mexico City for the Party of the Democratic Revolution, was attacked by a group of individuals while visiting the capital’s food supply center.
It is once candidacies are defined, however, that violence against political figures skyrockets, as the targets of those seeking to influence contests through violent means become more identifiable. Since the start of the campaign for federal and state elections in March and local elections in April, violence against political figures increased exponentially, reaching a peak of 132 events in May, resulting in 55 fatalities and marking a record in both figures since ACLED began covering the country in 2018. Election day itself experienced the highest number of events against political figures, with 80 events recorded.
However, the risks to political figures are unlikely to cease after the Mexican elections. In Guanajuato, for example, armed men attacked the business of the elected mayor of Tarimoro, days after he won the election.23Xóchitl Álvarez, ‘Atacan tienda del virtual alcalde de Tarimoro, Guanajuato; mueren dos personas,’ El Universal, June 5, 2024 Furthermore, previous electoral cycles suggest that violence will not only remain high at least until the inauguration ceremonies, but will continue throughout the new administrations. ACLED records 210 and 179 events in the six months after the 2018 and 2021 elections, respectively, as well as consistent levels of violence over the years, totaling nearly 3,000 events of violence against political figures since ACLED began its coverage.
Organized Crime Group Rivalry Fuels Election-Related Violence
ACLED records high levels of violence against political figures in the states of Guanajuato and Michoacán, two of the federal entities most affected by organized crime violence in the year prior to the 2024 vote, confirming that in some states competition between criminal groups fuels violence against political figures. Six of the ten states with the highest levels of incidents against political figures during the electoral cycle are also among the ten most affected by organized crime-related violence in the same period (see map below). This is particularly true for Guerrero, which ranks second for the number of violent incidents against political figures, but first for the number of fatalities in these attacks, and fifth for violence likely related to organized crime during the electoral cycle (see table below). In Chiapas, the state with the highest levels of violence against political figures during this electoral process, increased violence linked to the rivalry between the CJNG and the Sinaloa cartel contributed to an increase of more than 90% in violence against political figures compared to the 2021 electoral cycle. The high levels of violence led to the cancellation of voting in Chicomuselo and Pantelhó.24Alejandro Santos Cid, ‘Al menos 15 homicidios y urnas quemadas: la violencia no perdona la jornada electoral,’ El País, June 3, 2024
Table – Top 5 Mexican states with highest estimated levels of violence targeting political figures – 7 Sept 2023 – 15 June 2024 – Spanish
However, there are some exceptions to the rule, particularly when one organized crime group exerts hegemony. Indeed, the states of Jalisco and Sinaloa are among the ten most affected by organized crime violence, but not among those with the most events of violence against political figures. They are also, respectively, the strongholds of the CJNG and the Sinaloa cartel, suggesting that their influence in local politics may be such that they do not need to resort to violence against political figures to consolidate such influence.25Agustín del Castillo, ‘El CJNG controla el proceso electoral, la economía y la vida del norte de Jalisco,’ El Economista, May 29, 2024; Rafael Croda, ‘Sinaloa: la disuasión armada como herramienta de control político,’ Proceso, May 31, 2024 Much of the violence recorded in those states, in fact, stems from these groups’ tactics to exert their territorial control and, occasionally, may be related to localized disputes with smaller groups, as in the case of violence involving the Nueva Plaza cartel in the Tlajomulco area.26Anel Tello, ‘El control del CJNG enciende la discusión tras la desaparición de 5 jóvenes en Lagos de Moreno,’ Milenio, September 12, 2023
However, in some cases the presence of a strong political establishment dominated by a few families also contributes to low levels of violence against political figures. Nuevo León is an example of this. Despite recording some of the highest levels of organized crime violence, violent incidents against political figures have remained limited in the past year. Nuevo León is the second richest state in the country, with an economy led by export-oriented manufacturing industry. A small number of families concentrate most of the wealth and political power. The main candidates for governor in the 2021 elections, some of whom are part of these families, have been accused of links with criminal organizations such as Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel (CDG).27Pablo Ferri, ‘Las acusaciones de fraude fiscal y vínculos con el narco sacuden el pulso entre Samuel García y Adrián de la Garza en Nuevo León,’ El País, May 8, 2021 Furthermore, since the collapse of the hegemony of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in the 1990s, the state has been governed by the Citizen Movement or independent candidates, but MORENA has failed to make significant advances in the state’s political sphere.28Daniel Javier de la Garza Montemayor, ‘The Fourth Transfer of Power in the Mexican State of Nuevo León since the Transition to Democracy: Social Networks, Polarization, Regional Identity and the Rebellion against Centralism,’ Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, n. 32, pp. 135-149, June 2022 In the last elections, in fact, it only won two of the 51 municipalities in the state.29César Cubero y Nicole Ruiz, ‘¿Quiénes ganaron las elecciones en municipios metropolitanos de Nuevo León?,’ Milenio, June 3, 2024
Local Power Struggles Also Significantly Drive Violence
Beyond direct attacks against political figures, a significant portion — 30% — of incidents manifested as riots and property destruction. These events were linked to the expression of public discontent towards local representatives or rivalries between competing political actors. They were particularly prominent in Chiapas, Puebla, and Hidalgo (see graph below). These three states are more susceptible to local power struggles and electoral disputes due to pre-existing intercommunal conflicts and the concentration of power in the hands of local power brokers or caciques.
Before electoral campaigns began, this form of violence mainly erupted during protests in which demonstrators confronted representatives for failing to meet their demands. However, property destruction and mob violence can also be used by political contenders to intimidate their adversaries. Indeed, these events increased markedly during the electoral campaign in April and May, and included attacks against the properties of candidates and officials, and mob actions against supporters of a rival faction. For example, on May 15, in Tlanchinol, Hidalgo, armed men shot at a vehicle stationed in front of the house of the candidate seeking to integrate the municipal council for the MORENA-PANAL alliance, who had already reported receiving threats before the elections in Mexico.
Finally, disturbances around election day are often related to the rejection of results, or to accusations of irregularities or vote-buying during the process by some candidate. For example, on June 1, in Puebla, a group of 200 people, including supporters of the PRI and the National Action Party (PAN), physically assaulted members of MORENA in Venustiano Carranza over alleged vote-buying. Due to the incident, the State Electoral Institute decided to annul the election results due to irregularities.30Anayeli Tapia Sandoval, ‘Este es el municipio de Puebla en el que se anuló la elección tras detectar irregularidades, ¿qué pasará?,’ Infobae, June 17, 2024 Similarly, in Chenalhó, Chiapas, supporters of the Green Party of Mexico clashed during an assembly to elect their representatives amid accusations that the disturbances were orchestrated by the mayor to prevent his candidate from losing.
