The 2024 Mexico Elections, held on June 2nd, saw Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling MORENA party secure a landslide victory in the presidential race, garnering nearly 60% of the vote. This historic win made her the first female president of Mexico. However, the presidential election was just one part of a massive electoral event. Mexican voters also participated in concurrent legislative, state, and municipal elections across the country. Despite the democratic process, the lead-up to these mexico elections and the election day itself were marred by significant violence, including assassinations and attacks targeting candidates and political figures.
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) documented over 330 incidents of violence against political figures during the election campaign period, specifically between the start of the federal campaign on March 1st and the vote on June 2nd. Alarmingly, at least 95 of these incidents resulted in fatalities. The level of violence witnessed during this election cycle represents a grim new peak, surpassing the violence recorded in the 2018 general elections and the 2021 federal elections, which saw 254 and 257 violent events, respectively.
The pervasive violence during the 2024 campaign period had a chilling effect, extending beyond direct targets. A staggering 553 candidates requested state protection due to threats, while numerous others withdrew from the elections altogether, citing safety concerns. Despite the severity of this issue, none of the leading presidential candidates presented substantial proposals to address the escalating political violence.
This analysis delves into the primary trends that emerged during the 2024 mexico elections cycle, examining the period from the official start of the federal electoral cycle on September 7, 2023, set by the National Electoral Institute (INE), to June 15, 2024. This timeframe includes the post-election period to account for potential disputes and attacks against winning candidates.
- Violent Attacks Predominantly Localized: Over 80% of attacks targeting candidates, their supporters, or families were concentrated at the local level.
- Relentless Pressure on Local Authorities: Current and former officials not seeking re-election were targeted in over 40% of violent events.
- Electoral Violence Extends Beyond Campaign Period: While violence intensifies during campaigns, it rises from the start of the electoral cycle and persists well past election day.
- Organized Crime Competition Fuels Violence: Six of the ten states with the highest levels of violence against political figures are also among the top ten most affected by organized crime violence.
- Local Power Struggles as a Key Driver: Less lethal forms of unrest, like riots and property destruction, constituted around 30% of events, indicating that local power struggles and community grievances also contribute to political violence.
Violent Attacks Predominantly Localized in Mexico Elections
Approximately 40% of violent events targeting political figures during the 2024 mexico elections cycle were directed at candidates running for office. While federal, state, and local elections occurred simultaneously, over 80% of the 216 violent incidents against candidates, their families, or supporters targeted individuals vying for local positions, including mayoralties and municipal councils. The remaining 20% included attacks on federal candidates and former candidates.
Veracruz provides a stark example of how local elections can escalate violence. Unlike most federal entities holding municipal elections in 2024, Veracruz was scheduled for these elections in 2025. In the 2021 municipal elections, Veracruz topped the list for violence against political figures, with 57 events recorded in the six months leading up to the vote and the two weeks following. However, this cycle, ACLED recorded around a quarter of the 2021 figure—17 events—in Veracruz, dropping it to tenth place in the rankings. This significant shift highlights the correlation between the absence of municipal elections and lower levels of political violence.
In other states, the presence of local elections fueled high levels of violence against officials, functionaries, and candidates due to intense power competition. A substantial number of candidates in local races became targets for organized crime groups and political rivals. Candidates were particularly vulnerable in Hidalgo, Mexico State, Morelos, and Puebla, where they represented the majority of victims. However, attacks against candidates proved deadliest in Chiapas and Guerrero, with 21 and 20 fatalities respectively in violent incidents involving candidates.
Though less prevalent, elections for state-level officials, such as governors and local deputies, also contributed to violence during these mexico elections. Several candidates for local congresses were targeted, especially in states holding gubernatorial elections. In Chiapas and Morelos, armed men attacked two state senate candidates from the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition. In Veracruz, MORENA’s candidate for local deputy was fatally shot. These instances demonstrate that while municipal elections are a major trigger for political violence, significant state-level contests also contribute to the violence observed in 2024.
Of all incidents recorded since the electoral process began, at least 69 targeted women, many of whom were candidates for public office, representing 13% of the violence. This figure should not be interpreted as women being less likely to be targeted. Despite the 2024 mexico elections highlighting women’s candidacies, including Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential victory and INE guidelines for gender parity in candidacies, women remain underrepresented in local official bodies. In 2023, women held only 28% of local positions. In fact, female candidates received more threats than men during the 2024 electoral process, often forcing them to withdraw from races, as seen with 217 female candidates in Zacatecas alone.
Violence targeting political figures in Mexico, June 2023 – June 2024
Pressure on Local Authorities Unrelenting in Mexico Elections
Candidates were not the only political figures exposed to violence in the recent mexico elections cycle. Over 40% of the 540 violent incidents targeted current and former officials not running for election, such as mayors and public functionaries. This persistent violence against these officials indicates an intent to exert pressure on political processes beyond election periods.
ACLED data reveals that public officials across various sectors were affected. Officials dealing with judicial and security matters, and public administration treasurers, were the most frequently targeted non-elected officials. This trend is largely attributed to organized crime groups seeking to control local resources and key administrative areas like security and justice, which can impact their operations. Indeed, non-running public officials are targeted nationwide, but they constitute a higher proportion of victims in states severely affected by organized crime-related violence, such as Guanajuato, Guerrero, and Michoacán.
Family members of politicians were also victims in approximately 14% of attacks against political figures, either as direct targets or related casualties. Violence against family members often aims to pressure a political figure. For example, in October 2023, alleged members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) attempted to assassinate the brother of the mayor of Tacámbaro—himself a former mayor—after the group issued threats against him and his treasurer. In at least 28% of these cases, the targeted family members were also public officials or politicians, highlighting that a few families concentrate significant political power but are not immune to attacks, especially in states like Guerrero, Michoacán, and Puebla.
The influential Salgado family in Guerrero state exemplifies this. Several Salgado family members hold elected positions and have been targets of threats and attacks in recent years. In August 2023, Zulma Carvajal Salgado—cousin of Guerrero Governor Evelyn Salgado Pineda—was attacked, resulting in her husband’s death. The attack occurred shortly after she announced her intention to run in the Iguala municipal elections.
Electoral Violence Extends Beyond Campaign Period in Mexico Elections
Similar to previous electoral processes, pre-election unrest, particularly violence against political figures, began escalating even before official campaigns commenced for these mexico elections. Violence against political figures first spiked in October 2023, shortly after the start of a “citizen support” period on September 9, 2023, in some states. During this phase, aspiring candidates for president, senate, and federal councils gather signatures to run as independent candidates. After a relatively stable period between November 2023 and January 2024, violent events against political figures surged in February. This increase coincided with the end of the pre-campaign period in most states, when aspiring candidates from political parties conduct public activities to gather support for their nominations.
Violence against political figures occurring early in the electoral cycle often reflects perpetrators marking territory. A violent incident signals control over an area and aims to deter candidates deemed threatening or unaligned. Most victims in at least 34 events recorded in October 2023 were current or former local representatives and their families, though some targeted elected positions. For instance, on October 4th, the mayor of the Cuauhtémoc district of Mexico City, seeking the candidacy for Head of Government of Mexico City for the Party of the Democratic Revolution, was attacked while visiting the capital’s food supply center.
However, violence against political figures sharply escalates once candidacies are defined, as targets become more identifiable for those seeking to influence contests through violence. From the start of campaigns for federal and state elections in March, and local elections in April, violence against political figures increased exponentially, peaking at 132 events in May, resulting in 55 fatalities—a record high in both figures since ACLED began covering Mexico in 2018. Election Day itself saw the highest number of events against political figures, with 80 recorded incidents.
The risks for political figures are unlikely to cease post-election. In Guanajuato, for example, armed men attacked the business of the elected mayor of Tarimoro days after his victory. Past election cycles suggest violence will remain elevated at least until inauguration ceremonies and persist throughout new administrations. ACLED recorded 210 and 179 events in the six months following the 2018 and 2021 elections, respectively, indicating consistent violence levels over the years, with nearly 3,000 violent events against political figures since ACLED’s coverage began.
Organized Crime Competition Fuels Election-Related Violence in Mexico Elections
ACLED recorded high levels of violence against political figures in Guanajuato and Michoacán, two of the states most affected by organized crime violence in the year preceding the 2024 mexico elections vote. This confirms that in some states, competition between criminal groups drives violence against political figures. Six of the ten states with the highest incident levels against political figures during the electoral cycle are also among the top ten most affected by organized crime-related violence in the same period. This is particularly true for Guerrero, ranking second in violent incidents against political figures, but first in fatalities, and fifth in likely organized crime-related violence during the electoral cycle. In Chiapas, the state with the highest violence levels against political figures in this election process, increased violence linked to the CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel rivalry contributed to a over 90% rise in violence against political figures compared to the 2021 election cycle. High violence levels led to the cancellation of voting in Chicomuselo and Pantelhó.
Top 5 Mexican states with highest violence against political figures, Sept 2023 – June 2024
However, exceptions exist, particularly where one organized crime group has hegemony. Jalisco and Sinaloa states are among the top ten most affected by organized crime violence, but not among those with the most violence against political figures. These are strongholds of the CJNG and Sinaloa Cartel, respectively, suggesting their influence in local politics may be so entrenched that they do not need violence against political figures to consolidate power. Much of the violence in these states stems from these groups’ territorial control tactics and localized disputes with smaller groups, like the Nueva Plaza cartel in Tlajomulco.
In some cases, a strong political establishment dominated by a few families also contributes to lower violence against political figures. Nuevo León exemplifies this. Despite high organized crime violence levels, violent incidents against political figures have remained limited. Nuevo León is Mexico’s second-richest state, with an export-oriented manufacturing economy. A small number of families concentrate most wealth and political power. Major gubernatorial candidates in the 2021 elections, some from these families, faced accusations of links to criminal organizations like Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel (CDG). Since the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)’s hegemony collapsed in the 1990s, the state has been governed by the Citizens’ Movement or independent candidates, with MORENA failing to make significant political inroads. In the recent elections, MORENA won only two of the state’s 51 municipalities.
Local Power Agent Competition Drives Violence in Mexico Elections
Beyond direct attacks on political figures during these mexico elections, a significant portion—30%—of incidents involved riots and property destruction. These events were linked to public discontent with local representatives or rivalries between political actors. They were particularly prominent in Chiapas, Puebla, and Hidalgo. These three states are more susceptible to local power struggles and electoral disputes due to pre-existing inter-community conflicts and power concentration in local power brokers or caciques.
Before election campaigns, this violence form mainly erupted during protests where demonstrators confronted representatives for failing to meet demands. However, property destruction and collective violence can also be used by political contenders to intimidate rivals. These events notably increased during the April and May election campaign, including attacks on candidates’ and officials’ properties, and collective actions against rival faction supporters. For example, on May 15th in Tlanchinol, Hidalgo, armed men shot at a vehicle outside the home of a candidate seeking a municipal council seat for the MORENA-PANAL alliance, who had reported pre-election threats.
Lastly, unrest around election day often relates to rejecting results or alleging irregularities or vote-buying. For example, on June 1st in Puebla, a group of 200 people, including PRI and National Action Party (PAN) supporters, physically assaulted MORENA members in Venustiano Carranza over alleged vote-buying. Due to the incident, the State Electoral Institute annulled the election results due to irregularities. Similarly, in Chenalhó, Chiapas, Green Party of Mexico supporters clashed during an assembly to elect representatives amid allegations that the mayor orchestrated the unrest to prevent his candidate from losing.
