New Mexico’s unique demographics presented challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. This article details the development of a time-varying vulnerability index to assess the risk of negative social outcomes from COVID-19 at the county level in New Mexico, utilizing time as a critical factor in understanding vulnerability shifts. This index, leveraging weekly data and propensity score modeling, offered valuable insights for resource allocation and public health decision-making.
Introduction: Understanding Vulnerability in New Mexico
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed existing inequalities across the United States, disproportionately impacting marginalized communities. New Mexico, with its high poverty rate and substantial minority populations, faced unique challenges. This study aimed to create a vulnerability index specific to New Mexico, recognizing that a static national index might not accurately reflect the state’s specific vulnerabilities. This index considered the impact of time, recognizing that vulnerability can change as the pandemic unfolds.
Methodology: Building a Time-Sensitive Vulnerability Index
Four key sociodemographic factors were identified as crucial for understanding vulnerability in New Mexico:
- Total Population: While larger populations might suggest higher case counts, rural communities with fewer resources could face more significant social consequences.
- Poverty Rate: Poverty limits access to preventative measures and increases financial vulnerability resulting from job loss or medical expenses.
- Average Household Size: New Mexico’s cultural diversity leads to variations in household size, impacting potential for within-household transmission.
- Minority Population Percentage: Minority groups experienced disproportionate COVID-19 impacts due to various factors, including underlying health conditions and health inequities.
Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Sociodemographic variations across New Mexico counties: (a) Total Population, (b) Poverty Rate, (c) Average Household Size, and (d) Minority Population Percentage.
Weekly cumulative COVID-19 case data from the New York Times and sociodemographic data from the U.S. Census American Community Survey were used. A generalized propensity score model was applied to predict county-level viral exposure, accounting for these factors. The resulting scores were normalized to create a time-varying vulnerability index between 0 and 1.
Results: Shifting Vulnerability Over Time
Initial findings revealed significant fluctuations in county vulnerability during the first eight weeks following the first reported case in New Mexico, eventually stabilizing. Average household size proved to be a particularly dynamic factor.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Time series analysis of the vulnerability index for New Mexico counties.
Initially, larger households correlated with higher vulnerability, potentially due to increased within-household transmission. However, following stay-at-home orders, this trend reversed, possibly reflecting protective measures within larger families. This shift highlights the importance of considering Time In Usa New Mexico when assessing vulnerability. As the pandemic progressed and restrictions eased, larger households again showed increased vulnerability, coinciding with holiday travel and business reopenings.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Time series analysis of regression coefficients for the four sociodemographic covariates.
Discussion: Implications for Public Health
This time-varying index, incorporating factors specific to New Mexico and accounting for changes over time, provided a more nuanced understanding of community vulnerability than static national indices. The dynamic nature of household size’s impact underscores the need for policies that adapt to the evolving pandemic landscape. The index proved significantly correlated with cumulative deaths and case fatality ratios, demonstrating its potential as a predictive tool for negative outcomes.
Conclusion: A Dynamic Approach to Vulnerability
This study highlights the crucial role of time in understanding vulnerability during a pandemic. By developing a time-varying index specific to New Mexico, utilizing readily available data and a robust methodology, this research provides a valuable framework for informing resource allocation and public health strategies in the context of ongoing disasters, emphasizing the importance of considering time in USA New Mexico specifically. This approach can be adapted for other regions and disaster scenarios, allowing for more effective and targeted interventions.
